Satellite view of eyewall replacement in Super Typhoon Trami, 24 September 2018. Photo: Stu Ostro / The Weather Channel

By Bob Henson 
24 September 2018

(Weather Underground) – Storms are being classified and declassified at a snappy pace in the Atlantic, as several weak systems have been fighting off dry air and wind shear. We may yet see one or more of these systems strengthening as the week unfolds—and there is no question about the ferocity of Super Typhoon Trami in the Northwest Pacific. […]

Super Typhoon Trami heading toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands

UPDATE: Trami was updated to Category 5 status with the 5 pm EDT Monday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), with top sustained winds of 160 mph. Trami now qualifies as a super typhoon. Trami bolted to Category 4 strength over the weekend, then took a brief pause to reorganize after an eyewall replacement cycle.

Trami is now restrengthening around its new, larger eye, as it traverses very warm waters (29°C or 84°F) in very low wind shear (less than 10 knots) for the next several days. JTWC predicts that Trami will become a Category 5 equivalent by Monday night local time, and it could stay in the Cat 5 range for a couple of days. Watch for some spectacular satellite imagery of this very well-structured storm.

A dip in the mid-latitude jet stream will try to pull Trami northward on Tuesday, after which the typhoon should resume a west-northwest or northwest track. There is some model disagreement on how far Trami will get during its northward jog, but it appears the jog will be big enough for Trami to steer clear of Taiwan later this week. The most immediate threat from Trami is to the Ryukyu Islands of southernmost Japan, which include Okinawa island. Unfortunately, long-range runs of the European and GFS model agree that Trami will recurve toward the northeast around this point. Such a track could take Trami over a large number of the Ryukyu Islands by this weekend and across the heart of Japan around Sunday or Monday. Trami should weaken below super typhoon strength by the time it reaches the islands of Japan, but it is projected to remain a dangerous storm. [more]

Multiple Threats in the Atlantic, and a Super Typhoon in the Pacific

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