GFS model guidance for 2 m temperature anomaly – the difference between the expected temperature and long-term average temperature – for the week of 17 September 2018. The more positive the anomaly, the warmer the weather. Graphic:

14 September 2018 (Severe Weather Europe) – Mid-range model trends are confirming a new heat wave across Europe next week: temperatures will likely be 8-10°C higher than average for mid to late-September in central, western, eastern, and southeastern Europe. This means temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s again!

The heat wave comes as a response to a pattern change across much of Europe: a strong ridge develops over much of the continent, with deep troughs and lows – including the expected post-tropical storm Helen – forcing warm air advection ahead of them, a Spanish Plume setup over western Europe and a strong ridge elsewhere. Models agree on very high temperature anomaly: daytime highs will likely pushing as far as 30°C [86°F] as far north as northern Germany and parts of Benelux. Parts of France, Italy, and the plains of Pannonian basin may well push above 30°C! [more]

Strong heat wave for much of Europe next week – models agree



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