River flow percentage reduction in Spain during the drought period 1991-95. Graphic: College of Natural and Agricultural Sciences

By Frank Jordans
27 October 2016

(PhysOrg) – Southern Spain will become desert and deciduous forests will vanish from much of the Mediterranean basin unless global warming is reined in sharply, according to a study released Thursday.

Researchers used historical data and computer models to forecast the likely impact of climate change on the Mediterranean region, based on the targets for limiting global warming 195 countries agreed to during a summit in France last year.

"The Paris Agreement says it's necessary to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), if possible 1.5 degrees," Joel Guiot, a researcher at the National Center of Scientific Research in France who co-wrote the study, said. "That doesn't seem much to people, but we wanted to see what the difference would be on a sensitive region like the Mediterranean."

The authors examined the environmental changes the Mediterranean has undergone during the last 10,000 years, using pollen records to gauge the effect that temperatures had on plant life. [more]

Study predicts deserts in Spain if global warming continues


ABSTRACT: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies.

Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems

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