Desdemona Despair

[Translated from French] This graph shows the evolution of sampled cesium-137 concentration and the respective distance from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Concentrations vary typically from 1 to 10,000 Bq/kg, with an increasing trend over time. This evolution may be the result of the kinetics of cesium transfer to sedimentary particles and particle deposition processes the most fine. In view of the decrease in the concentrations in seawater, this should to stabilize in the coming months. The highest concentrations are found near the nuclear plant (100,000 to 150,000 Bq/kg). Before 7 April 2011, four values greater than 10,000 Bq/kg had been identified at a distance of more than 38 km but have not been confirmed by later measurements.

Some of the dissolved radionuclides in the water column remain suspended and determine the level of radioactivity in the surrounding water. These materials eventually settle at the bottom of the sea, causing a superficial deposit contaminated sediment. Sediment samples were collected up to 186 km from Fukushima Daiichi and 70 km off the coast at a depth ranging from 20 to 200 m.

The figure to the right presents a map of the distribution of cesium-137 concentration in sediments. IRSN established that six measurements close to the site had concentrations exceeding 10,000 Bq/kg. Most concentrations are generally less than 1000 Bq/kg; they are relatively low in view of the equilibrium distribution coefficient of cesium between sea water and sediment, which is usually higher than 1000. Thus, with concentrations above 100 Bq/L measured in coastal sea water (cf. § 1.2), we would have expected to find 100,000 Bq/kg concentrations in sediments. The transient pollution of seawater by cesium-137 has without doubt not allowed one to the balance with the sampled sedimentary stock. Only recently deposited particles contributed to the marking of the surficial sediments and they represent only a fraction of sample in the samples volume.

Accident nucléaire de Fukushima-Daiichi: l’IRSN publie une mise à jour de sa note d’information sur l’impact sur le milieu marin des rejets radioactifs consécutifs à l’accident [pdf in French]

Estimated world population at 7:00AM Pacific Time, 31 October 2011.

LUCKNOW, India, Oct. 31 (UPI) – India Monday marked the arrival of girl named Nargis as the world's symbolic 7 billionth citizen, the Plan India child rights group said. [Des: Not this Nargis]

The United Nations had estimated that Oct. 31 would mark the day when the world population reached 7 billion.

Nargis was born as the first child to Ajay and Vinita Yadav in Mall village near Lucknow, capital of the northern Uttar Pradesh State, the Times of India reported.

The state is the most populous state in India, which has the world's second highest population after China. The baby weighed 6.6 pounds, the Times of India reported.

The BBC reported Nargis was born at 7:25 local time.

Bhagyashri Dengle, executive director of Plan India, said: "Nargis' birth as the symbolic 7th billion baby attempts to draw attention to the serious issue of declining child sex ratio in India," the Times report said.

Other girls born in the state Monday also earned the symbolic seven billionth title.

Nargis' father was quoted as saying he and his wife would ensure their girl gets good education and does well in life.

Plan International in Britain, which had identified Uttar Pradesh as the place of birth of the 7 billionth person, said Nargis was chosen symbolically because it was not possible to know where exactly the 7 billionth baby would be born, the BBC reported.

Earlier on Monday, a girl born in a hospital in Manila, the Philippines, also was declared a symbolic 7 billionth baby, the report said.

World's population reaches 7 billion

By Kiah Collier; Editing by Corrie MacLaggan and Greg McCune
29 October 2011

ROBERT LEE, Texas (Reuters) – No one drinks the tap water, which is unbearably briny as the lake dries up.

After one of the hottest summers on record, the lake that is the lone water supply and main recreational draw in this tiny West Texas town is more than 99 percent empty. Robert Lee, which is a two-hour drive east of Midland, has received only about six inches of rainfall this year, half the normal amount.

It is the worst water stitch the town has been in at least since the lake, E.V. Spence Reservoir, was created in the 1960s by damming a portion of the Colorado River.

More water is on the way, but it will only be enough to meet the basic needs of the town of 1,049 and will come at the expense of yet another sizable water rate increase.

Residents are looking forward to improved palatability and a more stable supply because Spence -- which is usually 21 times the size of the entire area of Robert Lee, but now not much bigger than a pond -- withers away.

"It tastes ugly and it stinks," said Delfino Navarro, a mechanic and handyman at a local car dealership, who stood on his browning front lawn on a recent afternoon with a bottle of water in hand. "You can't drink that water or you'll get sick."

Navarro, who has lived in Robert Lee for more than 30 years, said he does not have the means to skip town but he knows of people who are planning to leave or who have left.

After the driest year in state recorded history, most Texas municipalities still have plenty, if less, water. But the plight of Robert Lee has become a reminder of the havoc an extreme or prolonged drought can wreak, as well as how dependent many towns are on rainfall for drinking water and how precarious it is to maintain a healthy supply without it. […]

The lake's only remaining marina shut down this spring. All the boat ramps now lead to dry land -- a cracked-brown moonscape where a few dozen feet of water once stood. The steady stream of out-of-town lake-goers, many who still own upscale homes on the periphery of the reservoir, has dwindled, creating a lag on the town's sales tax revenue.

Herds of feral hogs are beginning to encroach on the lake, which sits a few miles west of town, as all surrounding streams have dried up and there are few people to scare them away. Area ranchers are selling off their herds of cattle. The only thriving grass in town is at the golf course, which uses treated wastewater to irrigate its greens.

The town is planning to build a 12-mile emergency pipeline to the neighboring town of Bronte, which has a healthier reservoir and several wells that produce decent quality water.

But the project is hanging in the balance as the town waits to see whether it will receive millions in financial assistance from the state to cover the bulk of a $9 million project that also includes extensive improvements to the municipal water treatment plant. […]

Robert Lee is perhaps the most water-strapped municipality in the state. But the situation is not much better elsewhere, mainly in small towns with less diverse or plentiful sources of water and little money in the bank to get new ones.

San Angelo, a town of 93,000, located 30 miles south of Robert Lee, has 22 months of water left. Its main supply, O.H. Ivie Reservoir, which it shares with Midland and Abilene, could go dry by the end of next year if drought persists. […]

Life in drought: Parched Texas town seeks emergency fix

TOKYO, October 29 (Xinhua) – Decommissioning the stricken reactors at the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant is likely to take 30 years or more, the government's Japan Atomic Energy Commission said in a provisional report released on Friday.

The commission said that as the situation at the Fukushima plant is more complicated than the process at the United States' Three Mile Island Unit 2 reactor whose core was damaged in a massive accident in 1979. Removing fuel from the US reactor began six and a half years after the reactor melted down and took 10 years in all.

The provisional report said that once a state known as "cold shutdown" has been achieved, which according to the plant's operator Tokyo Electric Power Co., will be at the end of this year, it will take in excess of 10 years to complete the process of decommissioning the plant.

"We set a goal to start taking out the core debris within a 10- year period and it is estimated that it would take 30 years or more (after the cold shutdown) to finish decommissioning," the report said.

However the utility, also known as TEPCO, has been unable to confirm an exact timeline for removing fuel kept inside the spent fuel pools within reactors No.1 to No. 4 at the troubled plant in Fukushima.

In addition, the report noted the hardest phase of the operation will be removing the melted fuel from reactors No.1 to No. 3, once the spent fuel has been extracted.

The commission will continue to study the logistics of decommissioning the plant over various time frames and submit its findings to the government by December. A separate panel comprised of international experts will also be convened to look into the exact cause of the world's worst nuclear disaster since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

A massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11 knocked out key cooling functions at the No. 1 plant in Fukushima, located about 220 kilometers northeast of Tokyo, causing fuel rods to melt down and trigger the release of radioactive substances into the air, land and sea.

Japan's various nuclear agencies as well as the plant's operator has yet to fully contain the nuclear emergency.

30 years to decommission Fukushima nuke plant

By THANYARAT DOKSONE and TODD PITMAN, Associated Press
29 October 2011

BANGKOK (AP) – Defenses shielding the center of Thailand's capital from the nation's worst floods in nearly 60 years mostly held at critical peak tides Saturday, as the waters began to recede after killing almost 400 people. But the threat to central Bangkok was not over, the prime minister said, and the city's northern districts remained submerged along with much of the countryside.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra urged citizens to let the crisis run its course as the floodwaters slowly drain to the sea, with Bangkok lying in their path. The floods that have besieged central Thailand for weeks submerged entire towns across the country's heartland and shuttered hundreds of factories over the last two months.

"We have the good news that the situation in the central region has improved as runoff water gradually decreased," she said. "I thank people and urge them to be more patient in case this weekend is significant because of the high tide."

Bangkok residents watched the city's dikes and sandbag barriers warily as the high tide pushing up the Chao Phraya River from the Gulf of Thailand peaked Saturday morning. It had been described as the greatest test of the capital's flood defenses since the northern deluge first approached Bangkok more than three weeks ago.

While some water doused streets and shops along the river, the tides fell short of forecast highs and there was no major breach. Higher than usual tides will continue through Monday, but are predicted to be lower than Saturday's.

City official Adisak Kantee said the city's concrete barriers "are efficiently protecting Bangkok from deluge," though he said smaller, private dikes might yet fail.

"The situation is so far under control," he said.

Yingluck said in her weekly radio address the government was trying to speed the drainage rate and water in the greater Bangkok area should recede within days.

While downtown Bangkok were bone-dry and bustling, areas along the city's outskirts saw flooding spread. Seven of Bangkok's 50 districts — all in the northern and western outskirts — are heavily inundated. Eight other districts have seen less serious flooding.

In the city's west, not far from the flooded district of Bang Phlat, workers filled sandbags and stacked them in pickup trucks for delivery to the front lines, while vendors did booming trade in life vests, plastic boats, styrofoam and anything else that floated. With many roads in the area submerged, traffic was heavy both heading in and out of the city. […]

Bangkok flood defenses hold off peak coastal tides

By IB Times Staff Reporter
26 October 2011

Scientists are closely watching Antarctica's fast-flowing Thwaites Glacier, as they say its retreat is expected to speed up within 20 years when it separates from an underwater ridge that is presently holding it back.

Columbia University researchers said scientists are keeping a keen eye on Thwaites Glacier, which drains into west Antarctica's Amundsen Sea, for its potential to raise global sea levels as the planet warms. They noted that neighboring glaciers in the Amundsen region are rapidly thinning rapidly. This includes the Pine Island Glacier and the much larger Getz Ice Shelf.

They said that the new study published in Geophysical Research Letters is the latest to confirm the importance of seafloor topography in predicting how these glaciers will behave in the near future.

Scientists have seen that a rock feature off west Antarctica seems to be slowing the glacier's slide into the sea. The new study now connects that rock feature to a larger ridge, using geophysical data collected during flights over Thwaites Glacier in 2009 under NASA's Ice Bridge campaign.

The authors of the study said the newly discovered ridge is 700 meters tall and has two peaks - one that is now anchoring the glacier and another located farther off shore that held the glacier in place between 55 and 150 years ago.

That scientists have found that Thwaites Glacier is losing its grip on a previously unknown ridge has helped them to understand why the glacier appears to be moving faster than it used to.

A press release issued on the new study noted that in 2009, researchers sent a robot submarine beneath Pine Island Glacier's floating ice tongue and found a ridge that's about half the size of the one off Thwaites Glacier.

Researchers guessed that Pine Island Glacier lifted off that ridge in the 1970s, which allowed warm ocean currents to melt the glacier from below.

Earlier this year, Lamont-Doherty oceanographer Stan Jacobs and colleagues noted in a study in Nature Geoscience that the glacier's ice shelf is now moving 50 percent faster than it was in the early 1990s. Pine Island Glacier is moving into the sea at the rate of 4 kilometers a year - four times faster than the fastest-moving section of Thwaites, according to a press release.

"Knowing the ridge is there lets us understand why the wide ice tongue that used to be in front of the glacier has broken up," Lamont-Doherty geophysicist Robin Bell, study co-author, said via press release. "We can now predict when the last bit of floating ice will lift off the ridge. We expect more ice will come streaming out of the Thwaites Glacier when this happens."

Bell added that ridges like this one and the one discovered in front of Pine Island Glacier stabilize ice sheets, but can also be a critical part of the destabilizing process.

Faster Retreat of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier Predicted via Richard Pauli

Editor: Wang Guanqun, english.news.cn 
29 October 2011

ISLAMABAD, October 29 (Xinhua) – The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said on Saturday that needs of flood-hit Pakistani people are rising as winter approaches and reported outbreaks of waterborne diseases.

Heavy monsoon rains in August caused floods in southern Sindh province and affected over five million people. Nearly 300 people had been killed and nearly 1 million homes had been destroyed and 72 percent of crops ruined in the worst-affected areas.

In southern Sindh, stagnant water remains a major environmental and health hazard, and water-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue are on the rise, OCHA said.

OCHA has warned that funding for humanitarian assistance in the country remains low, with stocks of some relief items severely depleted.

Access to clean drinking water remains critical and the onset of winter in mid-November in most parts of flood-affected areas means that people will require more winterized shelter, OCHA said.

Although receding water levels have allowed some displaced people to return to their villages, relief needs continue because of poor sanitation in areas where homes, crops, and livestock were lost to the floods, it said.

Since the beginning of the latest floods, about 1.8 million people or 50 percent of those in need have been provided with food, while 700,000 received essential medical services, according to OCHA.

An estimated 375,000 people (76 percent) have emergency shelter and 870,000 of the affected population (35 percent) received clean water.

The rapid response plan launched on 18 September is only 23 percent funded, with only 80 million of the requested 357 million U.S. dollars received so far.

Unless additional resources are made available, UN agencies warn that most relief stocks are likely to run out, according to OCHA.

Pakistan has been severely affected by floods for the second consecutive year, leaving more than five million people in need of safe drinking water, sanitation services, food, shelter materials and other essential support.

Pakistan was hit by the worst floods in its history in 2010, with 21 million people affected.

Stocks run out in Pakistan's flood-hit area: UN

By John R. Platt
25 October 2011

Sad news coming out of Vietnam today: the Javan rhinoceros subspecies (Rhinoceros sondaicus annamiticus), once endemic to Southeast Asia, has been confirmed as extinct, according to WWF International. There are now officially no rhinos left in Vietnam.

This is the second of the three Javan rhino subspecies to be hunted into extinction. The first, the Indian Javan rhinoceros (R. sondaicus inermis), disappeared more than a century ago. Now only the Indonesian Javan rhino (R. sondaicus sondaicus) remains alive, and it might not last much longer either. Just 50 or fewer of these animals are thought to exist in Ujung Kulon National Park on the island of Java.

All rhino species worldwide are heavily threatened by rampant poaching for their horns, which are sold for upward of $30,000 each for use in so-called traditional Asian medicine, even though they are of no actual medicinal value. There are two other Asian rhino species: the one-horned Indian rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis), which numbers about 3,000 animals in the wild, and the critically endangered Sumatran rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis), which has two subspecies with a combined population of less than 300 individuals. A third Sumatran rhino subspecies may or may not still exist. In addition, there are two African rhino species: the white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum)—which includes the southern white rhino (the healthiest rhino subspecies, with more than 17,000 animals) and the northern white rhino, which is now down to its last seven individuals—and the black rhino (Diceros bicornis), with three critically endangered subspecies (two of which are below 1,000 individuals) and a fourth subspecies that was last seen in the year 2000 and is now believed to be extinct.

What is now known to have been the last Vietnam Javan rhino (the subspecies’s official name) was killed by poachers in April 2010. At the time, scientists estimated that there might have been up to eight of these elusive, rarely photographed rhinos left in Vietnam. Now it seems that already low estimate was too optimistic. Genetic analysis of 22 dung samples collected by a WWF survey team in 2009 and 2010 reveals that they were all from a single rhino—the same one shot by poachers last year.

“The last Javan rhino in Vietnam has gone,” Tran Thi Minh Hien, WWF-Vietnam country director, said in a prepared statement. “It is painful that despite significant investment in the Vietnamese rhino population conservation efforts failed to save this unique animal. Vietnam has lost part of its natural heritage.” […]

Poachers Drive Javan Rhino to Extinction in Vietnam [Updated]

By Brandon Keim
26 October 2011 

When searching for causes of Earth’s mass extinctions, scientists instinctively turn to geophysical calamities: erupting volcanoes, methane bursts, asteroid strikes, and other obvious dooms.

But in the most massive extinction of all, when most of everything that lived died out some 250 million years ago, a more subtle form of destruction has been suggested. Following an initial volcanic upset, the loss of life itself may have fueled further extinctions, then slowed life’s recovery.

That possibility, suggested by massive analyses of fossils and chemical signals left during the Permian-Triassic extinction event, represents more than an interesting wrinkle to a notable period in history. By this reading of the fossil record, biological diversity — something that’s now imperiled by human appetites — may be a sustaining, stabilizing force on planetary scales, and its disruption self-perpetuating.

“Earlier interpretations have looked at the Permian-Triassic extinction as purely the result of external physical processes,” said paleobiologist Jessica Whiteside of Brown University. “But low diversity itself can be a feedback.”

Whiteside’s specialty is mass extinctions and their geophysical consequences, cycles of energy and nutrients that play out over millions of years.

Her latest study, co-authored with University of Utah paleobiologist Randall Irmis and published Oct. 26 in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, follows on earlier findings that the taxonomic richness of ammonoids, a once-dominant class of marine invertebrates, rose and fell in tandem with fluctuations in Earth’s carbon cycle for 10 million years after the Permian-Triassic extinction.

During that time, the carbon cycle — the flow of life’s essential element through all Earth’s systems — oscillated wildly, a period known as a “chaotic carbon interval.” And rather than rebounding and steadily filling suddenly open niches, as might be expected, life appears to have entered a boom-and-bust cycle. Species flourished and collapsed, over and over, a planet-level version of the jellyfish bloom-and-bust cycles now seen in overfished oceans.

One seemingly plausible explanation is ongoing Permian-Triassic volcanic activity, which could have decimated new species as they arose. However, carbon chaos continued for millions of years after volcanoes cooled. A newer explanation, favored by Whiteside, draws from the work of ecological theorists who say that, at planetary scales as well as local, complexity generates resilience.

Applied to mass extinctions, this idea is somewhat radical — but in a coral reef or rainforest, or even a computer network, it’s an accepted notion. Just as distributed systems are more secure than a handful of mainframes, ecosystems composed of many interlocking and sometimes redundant species are especially sturdy. Because they’re stable, they in turn nourish life’s diversification over evolutionary time. It’s a biological catch-22: A richness of life requires stability to develop, but stability requires a richness of life. […]

Scientists say that Earth may now be entering another period of mass extinction, with species dying at a pace seen only five times in life’s history, including the Permian-Triassic. Exactly how current extinction rates compare to those episodes is an open question, all the more pressing if modern extinctions represent not just the loss of a lineage but a constraint on evolution for the foreseeable future, if not millions of years to come. […]

Mass Species Loss Stunts Evolution for Millions of Years

October 28 (AP)  BANGKOK – The main river coursing through Thailand's capital swelled to record highs Friday, briefly flooding riverside buildings and an ornate royal complex at high tide amid fears that flood defenses could break and swamp the heart of the city.

Ankle-high water from the Chao Phraya river spilled through one sandbagged entranceway of Bangkok's treasured Grand Palace, which once housed the kingdom's monarchy. The army was pumping out the water, and tourists were still entering the white-walled compound.

The river has filled roads outside the palace gates for days, but the water has receded with the tides, leaving streets dry again.

But the higher-than-normal tides in the Gulf of Thailand, expected to peak Saturday, are obstructing the flood runoff from the north, and there are fears the overflows could swamp parts of downtown. The government also is worried major barriers and dikes could break.

The flood walls protecting much of the inner city are 8.2 feet high, and Saturday's high tide is expected to reach 8.5 feet.

Friday's morning high tide passed without a major breach, but the waters briefly touched riverside areas closer to the city's central business districts of Silom and Sathorn.

"It is clear that although the high tides haven't reached 2.5 meters (8.2 feet), it was high enough to prolong the suffering of those living outside of the flood walls and to threaten those living behind deteriorating walls," Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said.

Seven of Bangkok's 50 districts — all in the northern outskirts — are heavily flooded, and residents have fled aboard bamboo rafts and army trucks and by wading in waist-deep water. Eight other districts have seen less serious flooding.

New flooding was reported Friday in the city's southeast when a canal overflowed in a neighborhood on the outer parts of Sukhumvit Road.

The floods, the heaviest in Thailand in more than half a century, have drenched a third of the country's provinces, killed close to 400 people and displaced more than 110,000 others. The water has crept from the central plains south toward the Gulf of Thailand, but Bangkok is in the way. The capital is literally surrounded by behemoth pools of water flowing around and through the city via a complex network of canals and rivers. […]

Heavy flooding gushes into Bangkok's riverfront

BANGKOK, October 29 (Reuters) – Traffic clogged roads out of the Thai capital yesterday, as tens of thousands of people fled ahead of a high tide expected to worsen floods that have inundated factories and prompted foreign governments to warn their citizens to stay away.

The main concern is that Bangkok’s Chao Phraya River will burst its banks over the weekend during the unusually high tide that began yesterday. Buildings across Bangkok have been sandbagged for protection, and some vulnerable streets were nearly deserted.

Thailand’s worst flooding in half a century, caused in part by unusually heavy monsoon rain, has killed 377 people since mid-July and disrupted the lives of nearly 2.2 million, until now mostly in the north and central provinces.

TV footage showed cars and trucks bumper-to-bumper leaving the city and the main airport’s departure lounges packed, but the traffic department said it could not put an exact figure on the size of the Bangkok exodus because much of its monitoring equipment was under water.

Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she was considering a proposal to dig channels into some roads in eastern Bangkok to drain water into the Gulf of Thailand, an idea backed by the chairman of the Thailand unit of Toyota Motor Corp, whose factories have been badly flooded.

“We need to look into several details on whether it works,” Yingluck told reporters.

The Meteorological Department warned residents living along the Chao Phraya they could face rising waters. Roads around the Grand Palace are partially flooded along with some streets in densely populated Chinatown.

Yesterday morning, on a street in front of the Grand Palace normally bustling with tourists, a 2m snake was caught by a motorcycle taxi driver. Residents have also had to contend with crocodiles escaping from flooded farms.

While many of the inner-city streets of Bangkok remained dry, the suburbs continued to struggle.

In the riverside shantytown of Bang Phlad, small wooden homes were knee-deep in foul-smelling water with rubbish floating on the surface. Residents carried belongings above their heads, struggling against the current of water pumped back out to the river.

At the district’s Yanhee hospital, two dozen emergency room doctors and nurses shoveled sand into sacks to fortify a 1m wall protecting the building as water levels rose in a nearby canal brimming with trash.

In Nonthaburi Province bordering Bangkok, walls of sandbags were collapsing under the weight of surging floodwaters. A policeman dressed in shorts, flip-flops and a vest directed traffic on a megaphone as water gushed out of drains. […]

Tens of thousands flee floods in Bangkok

Caption by Michon Scott with information from Kenneth Duda, U.S. Geological Survey
27 October 2011

The Chao Phraya River forms at the confluence of smaller rivers in central Thailand, and flows southward to the Gulf of Thailand. En route to the sea, the river passes through Ayutthaya. First established in the fourteenth century, Ayutthaya lies north of Thailand’s capital city of Bangkok, and the floods plaguing Thailand in October 2011 did not spare this historic city.

The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite acquired this natural-color images of Ayutthaya on October 23, 2011. The Chao Phraya River curves through the southwestern part of the city (image lower left). In October, however, the river has overflowed onto nearby floodplains, especially southwest of the river and west of Route 356. Fields, roads, and buildings have all been submerged by sediment-clogged flood water.

Thailand’s monsoon generally lasts from mid-May to September. […] The large expanse of flood water in October 2011 is unusual even in a monsoon season.

Flooding forced the closure of manufacturing plants in Ayutthaya, according to news reports. The city is a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage site. On October 12, UNESCO Bangkok announced a planned assessment of flood damage to Ayutthaya, requested by the government of Thailand.

Floods Swamp Historic City in Thailand

From Jiji Tsushin (10/28/2011):

フランス政府系の放射線防護原子力安全研究所（ＩＲＳＮ）は２７日、東京電力福島第１原発事故後の３月２１日から７月半ばまでに海に流出した放射性セシウ ム１３７の総量は２．７１京ベクレル（１京は１兆の１万倍）で、東京電力が６月に発表した推計値の２０倍に達すると推定した調査報告書を公表した。

On October 27, the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (L'Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, IRSN) of France announced its research report in which the researchers estimated the total amount of radioactive cesium-137 leaked from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant into the ocean was 27,100 terabecquerels from March 21 to mid July. The IRSN estimate is 20 times as much as the estimate announced in June by TEPCO.

単独の事故によるものとしては過去最大規模という。このうち８２％は、事故が起きた原子炉を冷やすための放水によって４月８日までに流れ出たとされる。

According to IRSN, it is the largest amount of radiation leak in a single accident. 82% of the leak took place by April 8, because of the spraying of water to cool the reactors.

The research paper (in French) is here.

(I don't have energy to look for TEPCO's estimate. But here's the paper (English) by Japan Atomic Energy Agency that put its estimate as 4 times as much as TEPCO's for cesium-137.)

Early April was when someone finally noticed the highly contaminated water from Reactor 2 had been leaking through the "crack" near the water intake canal. Remember the "tracer" (bath salt) to identify the location of the leak? Ah the good old days...

France's IRSN New Estimate on Amount of Cesium-137 into the Pacific Ocean: 27,100 Terabequerels, or 20 Times TEPCO's Estimate

[Translation]

27/10/2011 (IRSN) – A high radioactive contamination of the marine environment has occurred after the accident on March 11 in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power 2011. The main origin was the direct discharge of contaminated water from the plant, which lasted approximately until 8 April, and to a lesser extent, the fallout over the ocean of radionuclides released to the atmosphere between the 12 and 22 March.

In the immediate vicinity of the plant, concentrations in seawater have reached by end of March and early April up to several tens of thousands of becquerels per liter (Bq/L) for cesium-134 and cesium-137 and exceeded 100,000 Bq/L for iodine-131. Iodine-131 has rapidly declined due to its short radioactive half-life (8 days) and measurement results are below the detection limit by the end of May. The concentrations of cesium-134 and cesium-137 began to decrease in the area since April 11, and since mid-July, passed below the detection limits (5 Bq/L) of the measurement techniques used for monitoring.

In interpreting the results of cesium-137 measurement in seawater, the IRSN has updated its estimate of the total amount of cesium-137 discharged directly to the sea from March 21 until mid-July. The resulting value is 27x10¹⁵ Bq (27,000 terabecquerels), the majority (82%) having been leaked before April 8. Radioactive discharge to the sea represents the largest one-time contribution of artificial radionuclides to the marine environment ever observed.

However, the location of the Fukushima site allowed a dispersal of exceptional radionuclides, with one of the most important currents of the globe that remote waters contaminated offshore in the Pacific Ocean. Thus, the results of measurement obtained in sea water and coastal sediments suggest that the consequences of the accident, in terms of radiation protection, would become weak to pelagic from autumn 2011 (low concentrations in sea water and limited sediment storage).

However, significant pollution of seawater close to the rugged central coast will persist over time, because of the continuing contributions of radioactive substances carried to sea by surface runoff from contaminated soils. In addition, some coastal areas, still unidentified, could show the dilution or sedimentation conditions less favorable than those observed so far. Finally, the possible presence of other persistent radionuclides such as strontium-90 and plutonium was not sufficiently characterized by measurements.

Recent measurement results show the persistent contamination of marine species (mainly fish) caught on the coast of Fukushima Prefecture. Benthic and filter-feeding organisms and fish at the top of the food chain are, in the long term, the most sensitive to cesium pollution. It is therefore justified to continue surveillance of marine species in the waters of Fukushima.

Download the briefing of the IRSN of October 26, 2011: "Synthesis of knowledge relating to the ocean impact of radioactive releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear site" (pdf document in French)

[Original]

27/10/2011 (IRSN) – Une forte contamination radioactive du milieu marin s’est produite après l’accident survenu dans la centrale nucléaire de Fukushima Daiichi le 11 mars 2011. Elle a eu pour principale origine le déversement direct d’eaux contaminées depuis la centrale, qui a duré environ jusqu’au 8 avril, et dans une moindre mesure, les retombées dans l’océan d’une partie des radionucléides rejetés dans l’atmosphère entre le 12 et le 22 mars.

A proximité immédiate de la centrale, les concentrations dans l’eau de mer ont atteint fin mars et début avril jusqu’à plusieurs dizaines de milliers de becquerels par litre (Bq/L) pour les césiums 134 et 137 et même dépassé 100 000 Bq/L pour l’iode 131. L’iode 131 a rapidement diminué en raison de sa période radioactive courte (8 j) et les résultats de mesure sont passés sous la limite de détection fin mai. Les concentrations en césiums 137 et 134 ont commencé à décroitre dans cette zone à partir du 11 avril et, depuis mi-juillet, sont passées en dessous des limites de détection (5 Bq/L) des techniques de mesure utilisées pour la surveillance.

En interprétant les résultats de mesure de césium 137 dans l’eau de mer, l’IRSN a actualisé son estimation de la quantité totale de césium 137 rejeté directement en mer du 21 mars jusqu’à mi-juillet. La valeur ainsi obtenue est de 27.10¹⁵ Bq, la majorité (82 %) ayant été rejetée avant le 8 avril. Ce rejet radioactif en mer représente le plus important apport ponctuel de radionucléides artificiels pour le milieu marin jamais observé.

Toutefois, la localisation du site de Fukushima a permis une dispersion des radionucléides exceptionnelle, avec un des courants les plus importants du globe qui a éloigné les eaux contaminées vers le large dans l'océan Pacifique. Ainsi, les résultats de mesure obtenus dans l'eau de mer et les sédiments côtiers laissent supposer que les conséquences de l'accident, en termes de radioprotection, deviendraient faibles pour les espèces pélagiques à partir de l'automne 2011 (concentrations faibles dans l'eau de mer et stockage sédimentaire limité).

Cependant, une pollution significative de l’eau de mer sur le littoral proche de la centrale accidentée pourrait persister dans le temps, à cause des apports continus de substances radioactives transportées vers la mer par le ruissellement des eaux de surface sur des sols contaminés. De plus, certaines zones du littoral, non encore identifiées, pourraient montrer des conditions de dilution ou de sédimentation moins favorables que celles observées jusqu’à présent. Enfin, la présence éventuelle d’autres radionucléides persistants, comme le strontium 90 ou le plutonium, n’a pas été suffisamment caractérisée par des mesures.

Les résultats de mesure récents montrent la persistance d’une contamination des espèces marines (poissons principalement) pêchées sur les côtes de la préfecture de Fukushima. Les organismes benthiques et filtreurs ainsi que les poissons au sommet de la chaine alimentaire sont, dans la durée, les plus sensibles à la pollution au césium. Il est donc justifié de poursuivre une surveillance des espèces marines prélevées dans les eaux côtières de Fukushima.

Télécharger la note d’information de l’IRSN du 26 octobre 2011 : « Synthèse actualisée des connaissances relatives à l’impact sur le milieu marin des rejets radioactifs du site nucléaire accidenté de Fukushima Daiichi » (document pdf)

Accident nucléaire de Fukushima-Daiichi: l’IRSN publie une mise à jour de sa note d’information sur l’impact sur le milieu marin des rejets radioactifs consécutifs à l’accident

The Climate Change Vulnerability Index features subnational maps and analysis of climate change vulnerability and the adaptive capacity to combat climate change in 193 countries. It features an improved methodology analysing the exposure of populations to climate related natural hazards and sensitivity of countries in terms of population concentration, development, natural resources, agricultural dependency and conflict.

At a national level, the CCVI rates 30 countries at ‘extreme risk,’ with the top 10 comprising of Haiti, Bangladesh, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Cambodia, Mozambique, DR Congo, Malawi and Philippines. Of these Bangladesh and the Philippines are among the world’s fastest growing economies with growth rates of 6.6 and 5% per annum, respectively. […]

Of the world’s 20 fastest growing cities, six have been classified as ‘extreme risk’ by the CCVI, including the major Asian economic centres of Calcutta in India, Manila in the Philippines, Jakarta in Indonesia and Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh. Addis Ababa in Ethiopia also features. A further 10 are rated as ‘high risk’ including Guangdong, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Karachi and Lagos.

According to Maplecroft, population growth in these cities combines with poor government effectiveness, corruption, poverty and other socio-economic factors to increase the risks to residents and business. Infrastructures, which cannot cope at 2011 levels, will therefore struggle to adapt to large population rises in the future, making disaster responses less effective, whilst at the same time these disasters themselves may become more frequent. This has implications for buildings, transportation routes, water and energy supply and the health of the residents.

World’s fastest growing populations increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change – 4th global atlas reports

Yenagoa, Nigeria, October 24 (AFP) – A Nigerian environmental group on Monday claimed an oil spill from a pipeline operated by Italian firm ENI had badly polluted an area in the south of Africa's largest oil producer.

The spill which reportedly occurred on September 27 is said to have polluted the swamps of the Ikeinghenbiri area of Bayelsa state in the main oil-producing Niger Delta region.

"The volume of the spill is very high and in some cases it is difficult to separate the crude from the water," Environmental Rights Action field monitor Morris Alagoa told AFP a day after he visited the village.

The group's executive director, who is also chairman of Friends of the Earth International, Nnimmo Bassey, said, "I understand it's a very severe spill."

Alagoa said he found that "in some places the whole length of the swamp is black (with oil)." […]

Fresh oil pollution reported in Nigerian region

Contact: Elisabeth (Lisa) Lyons, elyons@cell.com
617-386-2121
27 October 2011

As the planet continues to warm, it appears that seaweeds may be in especially hot water. New findings reported online on October 27 in Current Biology, a Cell Press publication, based on herbarium records collected in Australia since the 1940s suggest that up to 25 percent of temperate seaweed species living there could be headed to extinction. The study helps to fill an important gap in understanding about the impact that global warming is having on the oceans, the researchers say.

"Our findings add an important piece in the puzzle that is determining the global impacts of climate change," said Thomas Wernberg of the University of Western Australia.

"We found that temperate seaweed communities have changed over the past 50 years to become increasingly subtropical, and that many temperate species have retreated south towards the Australian south coast. By extending the observed rates of poleward retreat to other species in the southern Australian seaweed flora, we estimated that projected ocean warming could lead to several hundred species retracting south and beyond the edge of the Australian continent, where they will have no suitable habitat and may therefore go extinct."

The magnitude of the shifts the researchers observed are consistent with patterns of observed warming in those areas.

The findings in Australia represent two of the major global oceans, the Indian and Pacific, Wernberg said. He added that it is also important to have documented these shifts in Australia because the Southern Hemisphere has been substantially underrepresented in climate change studies.

The analyses draw on a very extensive marine database of more than 20,000 records of collected seaweeds. "Importantly, we did not select species based on preconceived ideas about which ones should have shifted or not—we looked at all 1,500 or so species in the southern seaweed flora and analyzed all of those species that had sufficient records."

The changes observed in the seaweed community could have cascading effects across marine ecosystems, Wernberg said, as seaweeds are the "trees of the ocean," providing food, shelter, and habitat to a diversity of other species.

"I hope people will appreciate that the threats of climate change to marine environments are not just about exotic tropical coral reefs but also are likely to affect the diversity of life across a much broader spectrum of marine ecosystems," Wernberg said.

Seaweed records show impact of ocean warming

By Will Ross
BBC East Africa correspondent
26 October 2011

A combination of a military build-up in Somalia and heavy rains are making the humanitarian relief effort in the country even harder, the UN has warned.

Some four million people in Somalia need food and other assistance because of the drought and famine.

Eleven days ago, the Kenyan army entered Somalia to fight the Islamist insurgent group, al-Shabab.

The deployment and weather have contributed to slowing the flow of Somalis to Kenya's Dadaab refugee camp.

The week before the Kenyan army poured over the Somali border, 3,500 Somalis arrived in Kenya.

The next week, only 100 people turned up.

"The security situation remains precarious, particularly in Somalia's southern regions, further complicating humanitarian operations," UN humanitarian agency, Ocha, said in a statement.

"The military build-up is causing anxiety among the civilian population. Movement of humanitarian personnel and supplies are also likely to be restricted," it said.

Aid agencies fear the rain is likely to lead to many people dying from diseases like cholera as they have already been weakened by malnutrition.

The humanitarian effort is being severely hampered by corruption, especially in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, as well as by al-Shabab's restrictions on Western aid agencies. […]

Somali fighting and rain 'worsens drought crisis'

October 27 (AAP) – The NSW government is failing to protect koalas by allowing logging in remaining habitats, the opposition says.

Environment spokesman Luke Foley accused Environment Minister Robyn Parker of breaking an election promise to protect koalas after logging went ahead at the Bermagui State Forest on the south coast.

Logging also started last week at Boambee State Forest on the mid north coast, one of the last habitats for the vulnerable species in the area, Mr Foley said.

"For you to fail to respond and fail to intervene is a gross breach of your election policy to protect our national icon," Mr Foley said at a budget estimates hearing in Sydney today.

"Surely the precautionary approach would be for you as Environment Minister to stop the logging of this key koala habitat?"

Ms Parker denied breaking any election commitments, and said the government was working hard to protect koalas.

"When it comes to forestry, we are about getting a balance and protecting our native species. We are working very hard on them," she said.

"We have written to Forests NSW recommending a precautionary approach to managing impacts on koalas in the Boambee State Forest."

The agreement that allowed logging to take place had been signed by the previous government, Ms Parker said.

"Perhaps you should go back and look at what was going on when your government signed up to that agreement."

NSW failing to protect koalas: Labor

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
25 October 2011

SAN LUIS OBISPO, California (MarketWatch) – The theme: Repent. Haunting images of fanatical serial killers warning, “The End is Near, Repent!” That message seared my brain as the “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse” rode into Dexter’s dark world, the Miami Metro Police cable TV series. Now duty calls Dexter, CSI blood splatter expert by day, serial avenger by night.

Yes, the Four Horsemen, again. The perfect biblical metaphor for today’s bizarre world, where irrational ideologies prey on us, driving America deep into a dark world we’ve seen before: Goethe’s Faust, Dorian Gray, Dante’s Inferno.

How else to accept today’s bizarre plot line: A decade ago Republican George W. Bush took our great nation into a $3 trillion war on lies. Today that party is mindlessly controlled by a cultish anti-tax pledge made to lobbyist Grover Norquist and his Americans for Tax Reform group, who once proclaimed: “I don’t want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.”

Yes, drown. Kill. Folks, this insane plot line has advanced into a no-compromise, scorched-earth vow to do everything necessary to drown the presidency and reinstall another conservative who will return America to the Wild West policies that sabotaged it in the Bush/Cheney years.

They’ve become a vengeful cult that will never back the president on anything, even their own job-growth policies. Will even destroy the economy to achieve their goals. They do not care about democracy. They want absolute control. And they’re succeeding.

Yes folks, I am mad as hell. The America I believed in when I volunteered for the Marine Corps, went to Korea, that America has been hijacked by an irrational, dark force that’s consuming our political system. We saw this coming a few years ago reviewing Jack Bogle’s warnings in The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism. Buffett called that one: “There’s class warfare, all right. But it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”

Today that toxic mind-set is a metaphor visible everywhere, in images like Dexter’s Four Horsemen, visions of America descending into a self-created Inferno.

My America is out of control, babbling nonsense, acting like a junkie, addict, very bad alcoholic. Been there. Now decades in recovery. Also worked years professionally with hundreds from Betty Ford Center. Today everywhere I see a nation consumed by addictions: self-centered, selfish, greedy, aggressive, power hungry, lost souls with no moral compass, in denial of their suicidal mission, incapable of stopping.

That battle also came to mind in reviewing a fascinating new book, The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue & Prosperity, by one of my favorite people, Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Earth Institute.

His CNN summary says it all: Already too many people in our world. Adding too many more every day. Not enough resources. Worse, nobody’s solving the world’s biggest problem, overpopulation: “How do we increase opportunities for all, leave a usable planet for the future?” Read Paul B. Farrell’s take on the world’s biggest problem. […]

An apocalyptic end to world’s biggest bubble

ScienceDaily (Oct. 25, 2011) – The Greenland ice sheet can experience extreme melting even when temperatures don't hit record highs, according to a new analysis by Dr. Marco Tedesco, assistant professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at The City College of New York. His findings suggest that glaciers could undergo a self-amplifying cycle of melting and warming that would be difficult to halt.

"We are finding that even if you don't have record-breaking highs, as long as warm temperatures persist you can get record-breaking melting because of positive feedback mechanisms," said Professor Tedesco, who directs CCNY's Cryospheric Processes Laboratory and also serves on CUNY Graduate Center doctoral faculty.

Professor Tedesco and his team collected data for the analysis this past summer during a four-week expedition to the Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier in western Greenland. Their arrival preceded the onset of the melt season.

Combining data gathered on the ground with microwave satellite recordings and the output from a model of the ice sheet, he and graduate student Patrick Alexander found a near-record loss of snow and ice this year. The extensive melting continued even without last year's record highs.

The team recorded data on air temperatures, wind speed, exposed ice and its movement, the emergence of streams and lakes of melt water on the surface, and the water's eventual draining away beneath the glacier. This lost melt water can accelerate the ice sheet's slide toward the sea where it calves new icebergs. Eventually, melt water reaches the ocean, contributing to the rising sea levels associated with long-term climate change.

The model showed that melting between June and August was well above the average for 1979 to 2010. In fact, melting in 2011 was the third most extensive since 1979, lagging behind only 2010 and 2007. The "mass balance," or amount of snow gained minus the snow and ice that melted away, ended up tying last year's record values.

Temperatures and an albedo feedback mechanism accounted for the record losses, Professor Tedesco explained. "Albedo" describes the amount of solar energy absorbed by the surface (e.g., snow, slush, or patches of exposed ice). A white blanket of snow reflects much of the sun's energy and thus has a high albedo. Bare ice -- being darker and absorbing more light and energy -- has a lower albedo.

But absorbing more energy from the sun also means that darker patches warm up faster, just like the blacktop of a road in the summer. The more they warm, the faster they melt.

And a year that follows one with record high temperatures can have more dark ice just below the surface, ready to warm and melt as soon as temperatures begin to rise. This also explains why more ice sheet melting can occur even though temperatures did not break records.

Professor Tedesco likens the melting process to a speeding steam locomotive. Higher temperatures act like coal shoveled into the boiler, increasing the pace of melting. In this scenario, "lower albedo is a downhill slope," he says. The darker surfaces collect more heat. In this situation, even without more coal shoveled into the boiler, as a train heads downhill, it gains speed. In other words, melting accelerates.

Only new falling snow puts the brakes on the process, covering the darker ice in a reflective blanket, Professor Tedesco says. The model showed that this year's snowfall couldn't compensate for melting in previous years. "The process never slowed down as much as it had in the past," he explained. "The brakes engaged only every now and again." […]

Extreme Melting On Greenland Ice Sheet, Team Reports; Glacial Melt Cycle Could Become Self-Amplifying

By Anuchit Nguyen and Supunnabul Suwannakij
27 October 2011

Thailand’s government said it is losing the battle to protect Bangkok from rising floodwaters, and plans to open evacuation centers in eight provinces as the deluge forces more residents to give up their homes.

“The flooding is beyond our control now,” said Pracha Promnog, who heads the government’s flood relief operations. “The main wave of water hasn’t arrived in Bangkok yet.”

Diverting a three-meter-deep wall of water that is edging toward the capital is key to sparing the city of 9.7 million people from the severity of floods that have damaged about 10,000 factories north of the city. Authorities released large amounts of water earlier this month down a flood plain the size of Florida with Bangkok at its southern tip, after monsoon rains about 25 percent above the 30-year average filled dams to the north of the capital to capacity.

“We are trying to resist the nature of water,” Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said today. “We won’t be able to achieve that because there is such a large amount of water approaching Bangkok.”

Yingluck said all areas of Bangkok may be flooded for as long as a month. Yesterday, she said there was a “50-50” chance of avoiding a city-wide deluge. Conflicting warnings from the government have fueled panic buying of water and food, and some residents and foreign executives have left the capital as floodwaters seep into outlying districts.

Water levels in parts of Bangkok may reach as high as 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) if a major breach occurs in dikes to the north of the capital, with depths reaching about 50 centimeters in most places, Yingluck said yesterday.

Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said the timing and the severity of flooding remains unclear.

“Bangkok will definitely be inundated but it is very difficult to have a clear estimation on the amount and timing of water,” he said at a seminar today. “It depends on the government’s strategy on water management.”

Residents were evacuated overnight from Don Mueang in the north and Bang Plad in the west, Sukhumbhand said. Authorities started evacuating people from the northern district of Sai Mai today as more water broke through levees, he said. […]

The biggest mass of water is still about 30 kilometers north of Bangkok, said Anond Snidvongs, executive director of the government’s Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency. The amount water now seeping into northern Bangkok is “so small we don’t even see it on satellite maps,” he said Oct. 25.

Bangkok Floods ’Beyond Our Control’: Thai Government

By SETH MYDANS
27 October 2011

BANGKOK – As floodwaters bore down on the center of Bangkok, with outlying neighborhoods already under several feet of water, the city’s bus and train stations were jammed on Thursday with tens of thousands of refugees racing away from the coming deluge.

The level of danger to various neighborhoods is uncertain and Bangkok is now a city of rumors, panic buying and hastily built walls of sand bags and cement around shops and homes.

The flooding started three months ago with heavy rain and what seemed a badly timed release of water from dams and has been moving southward toward the capital, inundating cities like Ayutthaya, that remain under several feet of water.

As the flood approached Bangkok, the government seemed overwhelmed by the scale and uncertainty of the threat. A series of contradictory official statements in the past two weeks has coalesced into predictions of high water that could disrupt city life for weeks.

“This is the first time I am using the term ‘evacuation,’ the first time I’m really asking you to leave,” said Gov. Sukhumbhand Paribatra of Bangkok on Wednesday. His words focused on several areas at highest risk, but he said people throughout the city should prepare for the worst. […]

City residents have grown more apprehensive as flood defenses gave way one after another to the power of the water. […]

In an assessment Wednesday, the United Nations Office of Humanitarian Affairs said, “The capital is at high risk of being further flooded this weekend when the 1.2 billion cubic meters of northern runoff, about the volume of 480,000 Olympic pools, is expected to arrive in Bangkok at the same time as the predicted arrival of high tides.”

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has warned of a worst-case scenario in which water could rise in some areas to as high as five feet and remain for a month or more. […]

She said three crucial flood barriers are holding back the worst of the deluge into the city. “If we can’t protect all three spots, all of Bangkok will be flooded,” she said.

Thousands Leave Bangkok as Flooding Spreads

October 26 (Big Pond) – New Zealand salvage crews have passed the halfway mark in pumping oil from the stranded and broken ship Rena, but are warning they still face a Herculean task to get the rest out.

There was around 1700 tonnes of heavy fuel oil on Rena when it grounded on the Astrolabe Reef nearly three weeks ago.

Around 350 tonnes has spilled from the ship, and by Tuesday afternoon 645 tonnes had been transferred to the tanker Awanuia.

The salvage team will calculate the exact amount removed on Wednesday afternoon but estimate they passed the halfway point overnight.

Maritime New Zealand (MNZ) salvage unit manager Bruce Anderson says it is encouraging to reach the milestone, but warns the second half of the task poses some serious challenges.

'The second half of the oil is in around four tanks, rather than one - and one of them is submerged underwater.'

Mr Anderson said the salvors would now set up a fuel transfer system from the three engine room tanks, which together hold around 250 tonnes of oil, to the tug Go Canopus, which will hopefully speed up the process.

The salvors are currently pumping from these tanks into the port number 5 tank and then onto Awanuia.

The latest oil leak of note from Rena was on Saturday with MNZ national on scene commander Rob Service on Tuesday saying this oil is heading north.

'It will be broken down and broken up and once it arrives there and we can expect it to be in small patties,' Mr Service said.

Wildlife experts have been sent to Mayor Island to help manage the oil expected to wash up on the wildlife sanctuary's coastline.

Nearly 1400 birds have been found dead since the Rena ran aground.

Rena oil pumping passes halfway mark

October 26 (Maplecroft) – The fourth release of Maplecroft’s Climate Change and Environment Risk Atlas includes a new Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) that analyses and maps climate change vulnerability down to 25km² worldwide. It reveals that some of the world’s fastest growing populations are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate related natural hazards including sea level rise.

Many of the countries with the fastest population growth are rated as ‘extreme risk’ in the CCVI, including the strategically important emerging economies of Bangladesh (2nd), the Philippines (10th), Viet Nam (23th), Indonesia (27th) and India (28th).

Climate change and population growth form the two greatest challenges facing the world over the next century. This issue of population growth is driven home by this week’s announcement by the UN’s State of the World’s Population Report 2011 revealing that the world’s population has now reached 7 billion people.

The Climate Change Vulnerability Index features subnational maps and analysis of climate change vulnerability and the adaptive capacity to combat climate change in 193 countries. It features an improved methodology analysing the exposure of populations to climate related natural hazards and sensitivity of countries in terms of population concentration, development, natural resources, agricultural dependency and conflict.

At a national level, the CCVI rates 30 countries at ‘extreme risk,’ with the top 10 comprising of Haiti, Bangladesh, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Cambodia, Mozambique, DR Congo, Malawi and Philippines. Of these Bangladesh and the Philippines are among the world’s fastest growing economies with growth rates of 6.6 and 5% per annum, respectively. […]

Of the world’s 20 fastest growing cities, six have been classified as ‘extreme risk’ by the CCVI, including the major Asian economic centres of Calcutta in India, Manila in the Philippines, Jakarta in Indonesia and Dhaka and Chittagong in Bangladesh. Addis Ababa in Ethiopia also features. A further 10 are rated as ‘high risk’ including Guangdong, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Karachi and Lagos.

According to Maplecroft, population growth in these cities combines with poor government effectiveness, corruption, poverty and other socio-economic factors to increase the risks to residents and business. Infrastructures, which cannot cope at 2011 levels, will therefore struggle to adapt to large population rises in the future, making disaster responses less effective, whilst at the same time these disasters themselves may become more frequent. This has implications for buildings, transportation routes, water and energy supply and the health of the residents.

“Cities such as Manila, Jakarta and Calcutta are vital centres of economic growth in key emerging markets, but heat waves, flooding, water shortages and increasingly severe and frequent storm events may well increase as climate changes takes hold” states Principal Environmental Analyst at Maplecroft Dr Charlie Beldon. “The impacts of this could have far reaching consequences, not only for local populations, but on business, national economies and on the balance sheets of investors around the world, particularly as the economic importance of these nations is set to dramatically increase.” […]

“The expansion of population must be met with an equal expansion of infrastructure and civic amenities. As these megacities grow, more people are forced to live on exposed land, often on flood plains or other marginal land, adds Dr Beldon. “It is therefore the poorest citizens that will be most exposed to the effects of climate change, and the least able to cope with the effects.” […]

World’s fastest growing populations increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change – 4th global atlas reports