Desdemona Despair

By Elizabeth Grossman
29 September 2011

Over the past 40 years, a class of chemicals with the tongue-twisting name of halogenated flame retardants has permeated the lives of people throughout the industrialized world. These synthetic chemicals — used in electronics, upholstery, carpets, textiles, insulation, vehicle and airplane parts, children’s clothes and strollers, and many other products — have proven very effective at making petroleum-based materials resist fire.

Yet many of these compounds have also turned out to be environmentally mobile and persistent — turning up in food and household dust — and are now so ubiquitous that levels of the chemicals in the blood of North Americans appear to have been doubling every two to five years for the past several decades.

Acting on growing evidence that these flame retardants can accumulate in people and cause adverse health effects — interfering with hormones, reproductive systems, thyroid and metabolic function, and neurological development in infants and children — the federal government and various states have limited or banned the use of some of these chemicals, as have other countries. Several are restricted by the Stockholm Convention on persistent organic pollutants. Many individual companies have voluntarily discontinued production and use of these compounds. Yet despite these restrictions, evidence has emerged in recent months that efforts to curtail the use of such flame retardants — a $4 billion-a-year industry globally — and to limit their impacts on human health may not be succeeding.

This spring and summer, a test of consumer products, as well as a study in Environmental Science & Technology, showed that use of these chemicals continues to be widespread and that compounds thought to be off the market due to health concerns continue to be used in the U.S., including in children’s products such as crib mattresses, changing table pads, nursing pillows, and car seats. Also this summer, new research provided the first strong evidence that maternal exposure to a widely used type of flame retardant, known as PBDEs (polybrominated diphenyl ethers), can alter thyroid function in pregnant women and children, result in low birth weights, and impair neurological development.

“Of most concern are developmental and reproductive effects and early life exposures — in utero, infantile and for children,” Linda Birnbaum, director of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and the National Toxicology Program, said in an interview. […]

In one study, published this summer in the American Journal of Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley researchers found that each ten-fold increase in levels of various brominated flame retardants in a mother’s blood was associated with an approximately 115 gram decrease in her baby’s birth weight, a drop the researchers describe as “relatively large.” […]

Are Flame Retardants Safe? Growing Evidence Says ‘No’

By Gavin Schmidt
21 September 2011

After a record-breaking 2010 in terms of surface melt area in Greenland [Tedesco et al., 2011], numbers from 2011 have been eagerly awaited. Marco Tedseco and his group have now just reported their results. This is unrelated to other Greenland meltdown this week that occurred at the launch of the new Times Atlas.

The melt index anomaly is the number of days with detectable surface melt compared to the baseline period of 1979-2010. The higher the number, the more melt days there were. While this did not match the record 2010 levels, depending on the analysis 2011 was either the 3rd or 6th year in the rankings.

Analysis of the surface mass balance via regional modelling demonstrates that there has been an increasing imbalance between snowfall and runoff over recent years, leading to a lowering of ice elevation, even in the absence of dynamical ice effects (which are also occurring, mostly near the ice sheet edge).

The estimated 2010 or 2011 surface mass imbalance (~300 Gt/yr) is comparable to the GRACE estimates of the total mass loss (which includes ice loss via dynamic effects such as the speeding up of outlet glaciers) of 248 ± 43 Gt/yr for the years 2005-2009 [Chen et al., 2011]. Data for 2010 and 2011 will thus be interesting to see. […]

Greenland meltdown

By Michel Comte, AFP
29 September 2011

The economic impact of climate change on Canada could climb to billions of dollars per year, according to a study published Thursday by a policy group that advises the Canadian government.

The report, Paying the Price: The Economic Impacts of Climate Change for Canada, by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy estimates that warming-related costs may rise to $5 billion per year by 2020, and between $21 and $43 billion per year by 2050.

It points to a reduced timber supply, storm surges and flood damage due to rising sea levels in coastal areas and poorer air quality in cities leading to more hospital visits.

And it calls on Ottawa to invest more in generating and disseminating research and detailed analysis to help communities adapt to climate change to try to avoid some of the added costs.

Canada contributes less than 1.5 percent of global carbon emissions.

However, "increasing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide will exert a growing economic impact on our own country, exacting a rising price from Canadians as climate change impacts occur here at home," the study said.

"Climate change will be expensive for Canada and Canadians."

For example, warmer temperatures and higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may accelerate forest growth in some areas.

However, the gains are expected to be more than offset by tree losses from increased forest fires, pests, and extreme weather events including wind and ice storms. […]

Losses in the sector due to climate change, the study concluded, could rise to $17 billion per year, with westernmost British Columbia province's forest-reliant economy likely suffering the most. […]

Canada faces huge global warming costs via The Oil Drum

By Ben Baden, US News
28 September 2011

Next week, the Labor Department will release its much-anticipated monthly jobs report. Last month, the economy added exactly zero jobs overall, and 14 million Americans still remain unemployed. Economists expect September's numbers to be a slight improvement, but not enough to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate. In the meantime, here are 15 statistics about the jobs market that put the jobs crisis in perspective:

1. 9.1 percent. Today's unemployment rate is the highest it has been since 1982.
 
2. 131.2 million. The total number of jobs held by Americans in August. In January 2000, total nonfarm employment stood at 130.8 million. That means that over the past decade or so, less than 400,000 jobs have been added overall. At the same time, the eligible work-age population (those older than age 16, who are not in the military or prison) has grown by 28 million.
 
3. 58 percent. That's the number of workers currently employed as a percentage of the work-age population. In December 2007, it was 63 percent. "Particularly in an economy where multiple-earner households are an important element, that drop of about 5 percentage points equates to several million people who want jobs, who would like to have jobs, but for whom there are no jobs available," says Patrick O'Keefe, director of economic research at accounting firm J.H. Cohn and former deputy assistant secretary in the U.S. Department of Labor.
 
4. 11.5 million. Currently, there are 11.5 million fewer job holders than there were in 2007 before the recession began. "That's the true depth of our jobs deficit," O'Keefe says.
 
5. 6 million. That's how many workers have been out of work for at least six months and have looked for a job within the last 30 days. They are called the "long-term unemployed." This group accounts for 42 percent of the total number of unemployed. "That's the most striking statistic," says Stacey Schreft, director of investment strategy for the Mutual Fund Store, an investment firm in Overland Park, Kan. "Even though we have unemployment rates that were comparable to the '81-'83 recession, we didn't have long-term unemployment anywhere close to this."
 
6. 40 months. The average duration of unemployment is more than three years.
 
7. 16.7 percent. The unemployment crisis has affected races differently. This is the unemployment rate for blacks. Compare that with 11.3 percent for Hispanics and 8 percent for whites.
 
8. 25.4 percent. Young people have also been hard-hit. About a quarter of teenagers are unemployed. In comparison, the unemployment rate for adult men is 8 percent, and for adult women, it's 8.9 percent. […]

15 Stunning Statistics About the Jobs Market

If nothing else, existentially important goods include food. Although countries such as
Germany are almost self-sufficient when it comes to the basic supply of foodstuffs, peak oil could well have serious consequences in some areas of agriculture. Potential supply bottlenecks would above all jeopardise countries with high food import quotas since the cost of importing food is bound to become very high. After peak oil, there would be significant differences from past food shortages or crises in this context:

• The crisis would concern all food traded over long distances, not just single regions or products. Regions that are structurally already at risk today would however be particularly affected.
• Crop yields also depend on oil. The abdication of machines or oil-based fertilizers and other chemicals to increase crop yield would therefore have a negative effect on crops.
• The increase in food prices would be long-term and would not be the result of a one-off crop failure or a similar situation.
• Competition between the use of farmland for food production on the one hand and for the use of producing biofuels on the other hand could worsen food shortages and crises.

The probability of serious supply crises with relevance to security policy would climax where the food security levels are already low. Price fluctuations induced by peak oil would lend more weight to problems concerning domestic production or generally insecure trade relations. However, food shortages could also develop into a problem in countries that are as such self-sufficient if food production methods in various parts of the country vary greatly and distribution is inefficient or perceived unfair.

Since oil is needed directly or indirectly for the production of more than 90% of all industrial goods, effects would show across the entire economic structure. Since an increase in the price of oil would bring about a shift in almost all price relations, consumption and, in turn, domestic production and foreign trade would have to permanently adapt to the new oil prices.

PEAK OIL: Security policy implications of scarce resources [pdf]

September 28 (AFP) – Academics from James Cook University in Queensland on Wednesday said there was mounting evidence of widespread and substantial declines in shark populations around the world, with some species now listed as threatened. [Population Growth Rates of Reef Sharks with and without Fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: Robust Estimation with Multiple Models]

Professor Sean Connolly said assessing the numbers of sharks was difficult -- not least because many were caught accidentally while intending to catch other fish and some killed for their fins. […]

The researchers found that the results using all the various methods of assessing shark populations were in close agreement and that sharks were declining due to fishing.

"Shark declines are quite rapid," Connolly said.

"Our consensus estimates are around six percent per year decline for whitetip reef sharks and nine percent for grey reef sharks."

Given the range of uncertainty around the estimates, the decline could potentially be even greater, he added. […]

"Shark populations in other countries with significant coral reefs in our region are going to be in much worse shape even than ours are -- and ours are not in good shape," Connolly said. […]

Sharks in Australia's Great Barrier Reef in decline

By IAN AUSTEN
28 September 2011

Canada’s Arctic ice shelves, formations that date back thousands of years, have been almost halved in size over the last six years, Canadian researchers said on Tuesday.

Researchers at Carleton University in Ottawa, who regularly analyze satellite images from the region, also found that a major portion of the ice shelves split in half this summer and other pieces covering an area roughly one and a half times that of Manhattan have broken off since the end of July.

Consistently higher temperatures in Canada’s Arctic, the researchers said, were the main cause of the dramatic decline.

“It’s fascinating to bear witness to this as a scientist but it also saddens me as a general citizen of the planet to see this happen,” said Derek Mueller, a professor at the university’s school of geography and environmental studies. “We’ve seen this on timescale of six years yet these ice shelves are thought to have been in place for thousands of years.” […]

While the increased Arctic temperatures decay the ice shelves by creating cracks, they are also undermining the formations by exposing them directly to the waters of the Arctic Ocean. Historically, Professor Mueller said, the shelves were buffered from the sea by a barrier of pack ice the age of which is measured in decades. Now that pack ice has disappeared in many areas, exposing the ice shelf to direct contact with waves causing destructive flexing and heaving of the ice. […]

“This is an area of the world where temperatures are rising very rapidly and the ice shelves are responding,” Professor Mueller said.

Arctic Shelves Have Lost Half Their Size in Six Years

By DYLAN WALSH
27 September 2011

There are nearly 7,000 known languages in the world today. It is predicted that half of these, in many cases vessels of indigenous cultures, will vanish over the next 50 years.

This has been much on the mind of Brigitte Baptiste, who took over this year as director of the Colombian Environment Ministry’s Alexander von Humboldt Biological Resources Research Institute. Although rigorous assessments of indigenous vulnerability have been few and far between, she says, climate change is known to cause shifts in the growth of flora and fauna in local ecosystems, from animal migrations to natural cycles like pollination.

In some places, the shifts in ecosystems require indigenous cultures to rapidly adapt or perish as their traditional means of subsistence becomes harder to sustain.

For example, the Wayuu, who have lived for centuries in Colombia’s arid northwest, depend on the glacially fed Rancheria River as well as two rainy seasons to support a culture rich in fishing and animal husbandry. But glacial retreat means that the river is often at lower levels than it used to be, and seasonal weather is becoming both less predictable and more violent.

Over longer arcs of time, Dr. Baptiste explained by e-mail, indigenous knowledge keeps pace with change, assuring the viability of the community. But in the case of rapid climate change, “if this adaptive capacity, already embedded in the fabric of local cultures, fails to give quick answers, the youngest members of the community may jump out of the tradition.”

Many indigenous youths are already resettling in urban areas because of tribal displacement and the allure of rising economies, a phenomenon exemplified by the Nukak-Makú people of Colombia. Climate change will only compound the problem, Dr. Baptiste said.

She raised this concern in August at Colombia’s Second National Climate Congress.

At first glance, the loss of cultural diversity may seem insignificant in comparison with climate changes like sea-level rise, ocean acidification and mass extinctions of plants or animals. But just as biophysical diversity improves the resilience of natural systems and acts as buffer against adverse conditions, cultural diversity offers a resilient knowledge base for adapting to and counteracting the effects of climate change. […]

Climate Change Takes a Toll on Cultures

BBC Speechless As Trader Alessio Rastani Tells Truth, Collapse Coming, Goldman Rules World

UPDATE: Trader's Goldman Sachs comments spark BBC hoax claims

By John Plunkett, Tara Conlan and Oliver Laughland, www.guardian.co.uk
27 September 2011

He caused outrage with his comments on the global economic meltdown claiming "governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world".

But is independent stock market trader Alessio Rastani, interviewed on the BBC News channel on Monday, all he appears to be?

Twitter was alive with suggestions that Rastani was in fact one of the "Yes Men", a band of "identity correction" artists who pass themselves off as the corporations you love to hate.

When asked by the Guardian, via email, to respond to the allegation that he a member of the prank group, Rastani chose his words carefully. But the BBC's own investigation has concluded that Rastani is authentic. […]

Rastani told BBC News he had been "dreaming of this moment for three years … I go to bed every night and I dream of another recession".

There is no individual registered with the Financial Services Authority under the name Alessio Rastani. But a Twitter feed, using the name Alessio Rastani, appears convincing and dates back more than a year.

Rastani has a website, leadingtrader.com. The contact page, however, did not load, repeating an error message that it "could not establish a database connection".

The Yes Men featured in a 2003 documentary, The Yes Men Fix The World, the subject of this interview with one of their number, Andy Bichlbaum.

A BBC spokesman said: "We've carried out detailed investigations and can't find any evidence to suggest that the interview with Alessio Rastani was a hoax. He is an independent market trader and one of a range of voices we've had on air to talk about the recession."

The Guardian contacted Rastani and asked he if was aware of the rumours about his identity circulating online. Rastani said he knew of the allegations but declined to comment on whether they were true, adding: "Conspiracy theories, eh!" […]

Trader's Goldman Sachs comments spark BBC hoax claims

By Joe Romm 
26 September 2011

This year just set the record for most Federal Emergency Management Agency declared disasters. And we’ve still got 3 months to go.

It is strictly a coincidence, of course, that most of those disasters are climate related and climate scientists predicted that as we pour more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere we would see more record-smashing extreme events (see “Two seminal Nature papers join growing body of evidence that human emissions fuel extreme weather, flooding that harm humans and the environment“).

And no doubt it is similarly coincidental that the pro-pollution, anti-science extremists who run the House of Representatives are demanding relief efforts for these disasters be offset by cuts in clean energy programs that create jobs and cut emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that make extreme weather disasters more likely.

I believe Congressional Democrats and the White House should be willing to shut the government down rather than giving in to the GOP masters of disaster.

UPDATE: TPM reports “Dems Float Resolution To Government Shutdown Fight.” So it’s possible a shut-down can be averted without giving in to the GOP. But emergency disaster relief funding is only going to grow in the future, so we can expect more and more of these showdowns if the Dems give in to GOP demands.

What follows is the story of the showdown and the investments the GOP wants to cut. […]

2011 Sets Record for Most Disasters, But GOP Demands Relief Funding Be Offset by Clean Energy Cuts

By arevamirpal::laprimavera
26 September 2011

The Japanese government says it will abolish the "evacuation-ready" zone in 5 municipalities that lie between 20 to 30-kilometer radius from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant on September 30, all at once. It may be construed as a declaration by the national government that it is now "safe" to return after slightly over 6 months after one of the worst nuclear accidents in history (which many think is "the" worst).

Yomiuri Shinbun (9/26/2011):

東京電力福島第一原子力発電所事故で同原発から半径２０～３０キロ圏を中心に設定された緊急時避難準備区域について、政府は３０日に一括して解除する。

The Japanese government will abolish the "evacuation-ready" zone on September 30. The "evacuation-ready" zone was set between 20 to 30-kilometer radius from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant after the accident [where the residents are required to be ready to evacuate on a moment's notice and where no pregnant women and small children are supposed to be living].

同区域は、緊急時に屋内退避や圏外への避難ができるよう準備しておくことが求められている。南相馬市、田村市、楢葉町、広野町、川内村の５市町村の全部または一部が該当し、原発事故前の人口約５万８０００人のうち、約３万人が域外へ避難している。

In the "evacuation-ready" zone, residents are required to be ready to take refuge indoors or evacuate outside the zone in case of a nuclear emergency. The zone includes part or all of 5 municipalities - Minami Soma City, Tamura City, Naraha-machi, Hirono-machi, Kawauchi-mura. Currently, about 30,000 residents out of pre-accident area population of 58,000 have evacuated outside the area.

今後、各自治体は復旧計画に基づいて学校や住宅などの除染を進めながら、域外に避難している住民らに帰宅を呼びかける。

Each municipality will carry out decontamination of schools and homes based on the "recovery plan" [that it has submitted to the national government], and ask the residents who have evacuated to come back. […]

And "decontamination"? Good luck to them if the data from Watari District in Fukushima City is any indication. Professor Tomoya Yamauchi of Kobe University compared the radiation levels before and after the district's "decontamination" effort, and found that it hardly made a dent. In a place where the removal of contaminated dirt didn't happen, the radiation level doubled in a month, possibly with new deposits of radioactive cesium migrating from the surrounding area. Scrubbing the roofs and walkways with power washer lowered the radiation by 30% at most. (Professor Yamauchi's report is here, in Japanese.)

But the "decontamination" projects, which are usually undertaken by the neighborhood associations with minimal support from the municipal government's cleaning contractors, seem to have an effect of making the residents feel the radiation may have gotten lower because of their own effort, and that it will be OK to continue to be living there. […]

#Radiation in Japan: Evacuation-Ready Zone to Be Abolished on September 30

ScienceDaily (Sep. 26, 2011) – The two most important recreational fisheries off Southern California have collapsed, according to a new study led by a researcher from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

Scripps postdoctoral researcher Brad Erisman and his colleagues examined the health of regional populations of barred sand bass and kelp bass-staple catches of Southern California's recreational fishing fleet-by combining information from fishing records and other data on regional fish populations. Stocks of both species have collapsed due to a combination of overfishing of their breeding areas and changes in oceanographic conditions, the researchers found.

As they describe in the most recent edition of the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, the researchers say the total amount, or biomass, of each bass species decreased 90 percent since 1980. Yet fisheries catch rates have remained stable for a number of years, even as overall population sizes dropped drastically. This is due, the authors say, to a phenomenon known as "hyperstability" in which fishing targets spawning areas at which large numbers of fish congregate, leading to a misleading high catch rate and masking a decline in the overall population.

"The problem is when fish are aggregating in these huge masses, fishermen can still catch a lot each trip, so everything looks fine-but in reality the true population is declining," said Erisman, a member of the Scripps Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation. "So as the true abundance is declining, the fisheries data used to assess the health of the fisheries are not showing that and give no indication of a collapse-this is referred to as 'the illusion of plenty.'"

Erisman says the cod fishery that collapsed in the North Atlantic Ocean is the world's most famous example of fisheries data masking an impending collapse, but other fish stocks in regions where fish congregate to spawn are declining as well. […]

'Illusion of plenty' masking collapse of two key Southern California fisheries

By Jeremy Hance, www.mongabay.com
26 September 2011

The Atlantic Forest in Brazil is one of the most fragmented and damaged forests in the world. Currently around 12 percent of the forest survives, with much of it in small fragments, many less than 100 hectares. A new study in mongabay.com's open-access journal Tropical Conservation Science finds that the bloodied nature of the Atlantic Forest impacts its capacity to sequester carbon. The study found that 92 percent of the forest stored only half its potential carbon due to fragmentation and edge-effects, which includes damage due to winds and exposure to drought.

Researchers measured carbon over three habitats in the Atlantic Forest and found that carbon stocks ranged from 42 tons of carbon per hectare at the forest edge to 579 tons of carbon per hectare in the forest interior. On average, interior forests retained almost three times more carbon than fragmented or edge forests.

"Carbon retention is largely dependent on the emergent tree species, but the relative abundance of this ecological group decreases toward forest edges. […] Our results suggest that carbon reduction in edge-affected habitats results (partially) from a reduced abundance of large trees (particularly very tall trees) as well as from lack of carbon compensation by remaining canopy and understorey tree species," the authors explain. They add that forests had stored less carbon even up to 500 meters from the forest edge.

Extrapolating from their results over the whole Atlantic Forest ecosystem, the scientists found that only 8 percent of the forest is currently capable of achieving its full carbon sequestration potential. The rest is impacted by edge-effects and fragmentation.

"We must call attention to the potential collapse of Atlantic forest ability to store carbon due to the current configuration of the remaining forest, which is largely dominated by edge-affected habitats," the authors write, adding that "assuming that human-modified landscapes (most hyper fragmented) may represent the future of most tropical forests, further studies should verify patterns and mechanisms examined here for the sake of tropical forest ecological services."

CITATION: Dantas de Paula, M., Alves Costa, C. P. and Tabarelli, M. 2011 Carbon storage in a fragmented landscape of Atlantic forest: the role played by edge-affected habitats and emergent trees. Tropical Conservation Science Vol. 4(3):-349-358.

Atlantic Forest stores less carbon due to drastic fragmentation

Flow of the already over-allocated Colorado River, showing a general decreasing trend over the past 100 years.

Thirsty for Answers: Preparing for the Water-related Impacts of Climate Change in American Cities

By Emma Woollacott
26 September 2011

Bowhead whales have navigated the Northwest Passage between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans for what could be the first time in nearly 10,000 years.

Researchers from the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources used satellite tracking to monitor the movements of the whales - and found that, last year, whales from both oceans entered the passage to reach an area called Viscount Melville Sound.

Bones found on beaches in the region suggest that the last time the whales were here was around 10,000 years ago.

It was previously thought that the sea ice in the Northwest Passage was too impenetrable even for Bowhead whales, which are known for their ability to navigate ice-bound seas.

The team says the discovery has huge implications for the ecology of marine life in the region.

"[The findings] are perhaps an early sign that other marine organisms have begun exchanges between the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans across the Arctic," they say.

"Some of these exchanges may be harder to detect than bowhead whales, but the ecological impacts could be more significant should the ice-free Arctic become a dispersion corridor between the two oceans."

Earlier this year, researchers from the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research spotted a single Pacific gray whale off the coasts of Spain and Israel, which was beleived to have got there via the Northwest Passage.

They say that the movement of species along this route could have implications for North Atlantic fishing stocks.

Whales navigate Northwest Passage for first time in thousands of years

By Michael Marshall
25 September 2011

SLOWLY and almost imperceptibly the seas are rising, swollen by melting ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms. But there's another source of water adding to the rise: humanity's habit of pumping water from underground aquifers to the surface. Most of this water ends up in the sea.

Not many scientists even consider the effects of groundwater on sea level, says Leonard Konikow of the United States Geological Survey in Reston, Virginia. Estimates were published as far back as 1994 (Nature, DOI: 10.1038/367054a0), but without good evidence to back them up, he says. The last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that changes to groundwater reserves "cannot be estimated with much confidence".

Konikow measured how much water had ended up in the oceans by looking at changes in groundwater levels in 46 well-studied aquifers, which he then extrapolated to the rest of the world. He estimates that about 4500 cubic kilometres of water was extracted from aquifers between 1900 and 2008.

That amounts to 1.26 centimetres of the overall rise in sea levels of 17 cm in the same period (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2011gl048604).

That 1.26 cm may not seem like much, but groundwater depletion has accelerated massively since 1950, particularly in the past decade. Over 1300 cubic kilometres of the groundwater was extracted between 2000 and 2008, producing 0.36 cm of the total 2.79-cm rise in that time. "I was surprised that the depletion has accelerated so much," Konikow says.

It's not clear if the acceleration will continue. Konikow points out that some developed countries are cutting back on aquifer use and even trying to refill them when there is plenty of rainfall. "I would like to see that implemented more," he says.

"While there remain significant uncertainties, Konikow's estimate is probably the best there is for groundwater depletion," says John Church of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

Konikow, Church and colleagues have used the data to compare the contributions of the different sources of sea-level rise and found that aquifer depletion is almost as significant as the ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica combined (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2011gl048794).

Groundwater greed driving sea level rises

By Ben Raines, Press-Register
26 September 2011,

While the source of the oil bubbling up around the Deepwater Horizon site remains a mystery, a Louisiana State University scientist says further chemical analysis has confirmed that the oil originated in BP’s well, and not from other nearby sources, as federal officials have suggested.

Federal officials said Friday that they have collected samples of the oil rising to the Gulf’s surface near the wellhead in the weeks since the Press-Register went to the site and sent samples to LSU. […]

The Press-Register documented oil bubbling to on the surface on Aug. 23 at the site where the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in April 2010, killing 11 workers and spawning the Gulf oil spill.

Bonny Schumaker — a pilot with the non-profit organization On Wings of Care — first saw oil on the surface in that area on Aug. 19. She said she has flown over the site every week since and has seen oil each time.

“We did take some samples, but there wasn’t enough in the samples to determine the source,” said Ben Sherman, a NOAA spokesman. “We are planning future sampling in the vicinity of the wellhead.” […]

After LSU analyzed the samples provided by the Press-Register, scientists with both BP and the government contacted Ed Overton — the LSU chemist who did most of NOAA’s oil analysis during the spill — to suggest additional parameters he might test to confirm the oil came from BP’s well. […]

Overton said federal officials were wrong. He said he rechecked the newspaper’s oil samples using the more refined analysis recommended by BP’s scientists and federal officials.

“They were suggesting I had jumped the gun when I said it matched (BP’s well),” Overton said last week. “They are incorrect. I have double-checked, and I am even more convinced after using the suggestions that BP made that this was the Macondo oil. I think it is 99.9 percent confirmed that it came from that reservoir.

“It is a dead-ringer match. I was amazed that the ratios matched as good as they did.”

Overton said BP also provided him with samples from nearby oil sources, none of which matched the oil collected by the newspaper. […]

BP officials declined to answer whether the company would use a hydrocarbon sniffer, which can trace oil in the water column from the surface to the seafloor.

“This is crazy. I don’t understand why they are not doing that,” said Overton, who with his colleagues recently earned NOAA’s “Superior Accomplishment Award” for oil analysis done for the government during the oil spill.

“Whether it is coming from the well itself, or coming from the riser pipe, you can’t say unless you go down there and look,” Overton said. “There’s oil coming up. Where is it coming from? Send an ROV with a sniffer down and see if you see anything. As much money as has been spent, go spend a little more instead of denying that there is a problem.”

LSU confirms oil from BP well; feds collect samples

BAGHDAD, 25 September 25 (AP) – After years of wars, sanctions and drought, farmer Qais Nima Khamis says it’s time to save the dates — and bring back Iraq’s long-regaled fruit palm industry, which once led the world market.

Khamis, whose family has been growing the fruit since 1880, is growing hundreds of more date trees this year, aiming to double his grove to up to 1,500 palms. The government is taking its own action to revive Iraq’s lost golden age of dates, supporting farmers with loans and launching nurseries.

It’s just a start, said the 40-year-old Khamis, but “Iraq is now open to all the world, the government started some steps and that has brought some hope.” […]

Marhon Abid Falih, a date farmer south of Basra, would like to reap some of those profits. But he’s not sure the government can help.

Iraq’s chronic problems over the decades — lacking of water, electricity, fuel, and storage — have forced many farmers to abandon cultivation and find another jobs like in the army or police.

In 2002, Falih’s orchard in the Abu al-Khasib area south of Basra boasted as many as 200 date palm trees. He grew fruits and vegetables in their shade, and hired dozens of workers to help him during harvest. The farm made enough money to meet all his family’s daily needs.

But a year later, his farm was hit by drought and its soil grew bitter. Only about 50 trees survived.

“There is no motive to cultivate anymore,” said Falih, 52.

“It’s not a matter of planting new trees or taking loans,” he said. “There is no a longer benefit from agriculture because of the salinity and dearth of water. All attempts are in vain.”

“We will look for another work and come back only when there is water.”

Iraq struggles to revive date palm sector, eager to retrieve past glory

By Shaun McKinnon, The Arizona Republic
25 September 2011 

A dry winter and a weak monsoon fueled record wildfires, record heat and a succession of dust storms that played like a broken record, pushing Arizona deeper into a drought that has persisted since 1999.

Now, forecasters say La Niña, the ocean force responsible for the scant snowfall in Arizona's high country last year, has returned for an encore and could set the stage for even drier conditions next year.

The latest weekly survey by the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb., shows all of Arizona in some degree of drought, from abnormally dry conditions in the state's western third to pockets of extreme drought on the Navajo Reservation and extreme and exceptional drought in the southeastern corner of the state.

A winter forecast, meanwhile, by the Climate Prediction Center suggests little will change on the survey's drought map in the coming months. The odds favor drier, warmer weather over most of Arizona through December.

Dry conditions have forced some ranchers to continue reducing livestock herds already decimated by more than a decade of poor range conditions. Brittle forests contributed to a record wildfire season this year that has charred more than 1 million acres and lingered into September. San Carlos Lake near Coolidge is nearly empty, leaving less water for farmers in Pinal and Gila counties. […]

Many climate experts say Arizona never emerged from a drought that began in the late 1990s, even though depleted in-state reservoirs refilled during occasional wet winters. Now, some climatologists suggest there could be a link between this dry cycle and other extreme weather events.

"We're seeing drought from Arizona to Georgia, unprecedented drought, but the thing that's made it the worst ever in places like Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma hasn't been the rainfall deficit," said Jonathan Overpeck, founding co-director of the University of Arizona's Institute for the Environment. "It's been the heat. We just haven't had the clouds or the rain to cool the heat." […]

The monsoon has proved troublesome for weather forecasters and climate experts because of its uneven behavior. Storms have skipped across the state with spotty results, in part because the high-pressure system that controls the direction of storms settled farther east then usual.

"It hasn't helped recharge the aquifers, and it hasn't helped the rangelands," said Nancy Selover, an Arizona State University geography professor and the state climatologist. "It makes the accumulation of moisture deficits worse. It's going to be a tough year if it gets drier."

The dry conditions have taken their steepest toll this year on ranchers and farmers who depend on rain or rain-fed creeks or aquifers. Many still feel the effects of the longer drought, which forced ranchers to sell livestock and, in some cases, produce fewer crops. For them, the drought never really ended.

Along the San Pedro River near Redington in Pima County, Stefanie Smallhouse helps run a ranch with her husband, Andy. Since the start of the current dry period a decade ago, they have reduced their cattle herds by about one-half as grass and other feed dried up on the range.

"We've been waiting out the drought for about 10 years now," she said. "You just don't know when it will break. You hope it doesn't break you." […]

So far, the effects of the resurgent drought are most obvious on the rangelands and in the forests, but another poor winter-runoff season could begin to draw down water supplies.

The situation at San Carlos Lake, an agricultural reservoir near Coolidge, is already dire. The lake has shrunk to its lowest level in more than 20 years and, with less than 4,000 acre-feet in storage, it is precariously close to the minimum level needed to avoid massive fish deaths.
 
Water deliveries were cut off earlier this month, forcing farmers to dip into wells or to try to buy water from other sources, such as the Central Arizona Project, which delivers Colorado River water. […]

"Arizona is on the front end of climate change," UA's Overpeck said. "In no other part of the country outside of Alaska are we seeing it more clearly. It's going to get hotter, and we're going to get less moisture."

Arizona drought conditions could deepen

New York, Sep 25 (IBNS) – UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for a long-term approach by national authorities and the international donor community to tackle the root causes of recurring drought-related food shortages in the Horn of Africa, which is facing the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

“Addressing underlying risk factors is among the keys to ensuring this crisis does not strike again,” Mr. Ban told a mini-summit in New York on the humanitarian emergency in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti, where an estimated 13 million people are facing severe food shortages as a result of the prolonged drought. Famine has so far been formally declared in six areas of Somalia.

“Let us not allow drylands to remain investment deserts. Let us ensure that women and children have access to basic health care and water. Let us work for stability to allow markets to flourish,” said Mr. Ban at the mini summit convened on the margins of general debate of the 66th session of the General Assembly.

He noted that successful programmes in Ethiopia and Kenya have helped ensure that, despite the worst drought in six decades, there is no famine. “This is a profound achievement that can be replicated some day in Somalia. We will see drought again – with increasing frequency. But drought need not become famine.” […]

Irish musician and anti-poverty activist Bob Geldof spoke of a “perfect storm of social challenges” that the world seems incapable of dealing with because of the speed with which they have come. He called for the universal adoption of the charter by all world leaders and international organizations.

Recurring food shortages in Horn of Africa

By Brian Merchant, Brooklyn, New York
22 September 2011

Some of the most dramatic impacts of climate change will be felt by the millions of people who will be forced to leave their homes: Climate refugees will flee island nations rendered inhospitable by rising sea levels, arid regions increasingly wracked by drought, and wet, low-lying areas that grow ever more prone to flooding.

The international system that currently works to find refugees new homes will likely be overloaded as this occurs -- we won't be able to deal with so many mass exoduses at once. That's why Bill Clinton thinks we need to overhaul the current system to deal with climate refugees.

At a roundtable meeting with Clinton and a handful of other writers as part of the 2011 Clinton Global Initiative, I asked the 42nd President what he thought of current refugee policy in the face of our changing climate.

"I think that you have to assume that because of climate change, there are going be a lot more refugees," Clinton said.

"And that the laws which exist, and the systems of support that exist, not just the US but elsewhere, were basically built for a different time when you might have a surge of refugees from this country or a surge from that country, because of a particular political upheaval or a particular natural disaster. And that's almost certainly going to not work now." […]

"I think that in general we should become more open to immigration again," Clinton said. "Keeping people in limbo is a waste of human potential."

Bill Clinton: World Must Prepare for Climate Refugees

By Iftikhar A Khan
24 September 2011

ISLAMABAD: The United Nations warned on Saturday of a food security and shelter crisis, saying it would soon run out of its stocks of food, essential medicines and tents if the international community failed to support the rapid response plan for flood victims in Sindh.

Speaking at a briefing for diplomats and donor agencies arranged by the cabinet division and National Disaster Management Authority, UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator in Pakistan Timo Pakkala said that after almost a week of its launch, confirmed donor contributions to the rapid response plan amounted to only $9 million — just around 3 per cent of the funds required.

“This is awfully inadequate,” he said.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said the scale of devastation this year was no less than what the nation experienced last year.

Since the spread of the floods is all across Sindh, the national and international relief agencies and the media must portray its severity to the world, he added. […]

“The UN will face a depletion of relief food in one month and emergency shelter items will run out within weeks,” he said.

He said that more than 80 per cent of people affected by floods relied directly or indirectly upon agriculture and livestock for their livelihood.

“There are serious concerns related to the rise in cases of waterborne diseases, along with malaria and dengue fever. Many people are living without shelter and are exposed to contaminated stagnant water.”

NDMA chairman Dr Zafar Qadir said that the death toll had reached 392 and the number of houses damaged by the floods was 1.5 million.

UN warns of food crisis in flood-hit areas

A camera mounted on a crane captured this view into the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 Reactor Building during a dust-sampling survey on 24 August 2011. Steam is visible in the upper-left corner at 1:14. This location is approximately over the reactor. TEPCO

Steam venting from Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 Reactor Building, 24 Aug 2011

The 2011 Texas drought has caused more than $5 billion in losses for farmers and ranchers, according to a Texas A&M University study, and has sparked damaging wildfires.

A $5 billion dry spell

By John Gill, Special to Scripps Texas Newspapers
24 September 2011

Mother Nature is still tossing curve balls at wildlife and hunters.First, she came with a withering statewide drought and then she hurled widespread wildfires, some that are still burning in the Lone Star State.

Allan Cain, biologist and project leader for whitetail deer at the Texas Parks & Wildlife Department, predicts the approaching deer season will be a test for animals and hunters alike.

"Deer, particularly fawns, are struggling to stay alive and hunters won't find as many heavy horned bucks this season," Cain said. "We've had close to one year of hot and dry conditions."

It's estimated that Texas whitetail herds still number between 3.6 and 4 million animals, more than any other state.

Hunters shouldn't find a shortage of deer this season because herds have been so large for the past years. Texas, for the past five years, has seen good years of fawn production and some not so great, but overall herd strength remains high, he said.

"If this drought continues I'm concerned about the carrying capacity of range lane," Cain said. "In order to cope with this situation, I'm urging hunters to fill all the tags on their license."

Steve Nelle in San Angelo has a focus on West Texas and says hunters and landowner definitely should be selective with this year's harvest.

"It's all a matter of keeping a healthy balance with deer populations," he said. "I can look to past years of fawn production and make predictions. The year 2007 was a successful year for reproduction, 2008 and 2009 were not good; 2010-2011 will not be productive times. Unless we see some drought relief, the 2012 fawn crop is likely to be poor as well." […]

West Texas hunters are likely see the effects of being hit with that double whammy. This drought and wildfires have caused some shifts in deer herds that weren't contained by high-fences, Nelle said.

"As a whole, Texas deer herds are stressed," he said. "The exact mix of deer to be harvested, doe, bucks or spikes should be determined by the landowner or a trained Texas biologist." […]

TEXAS HUNTING & FISHING 2011: Drought, wildfires taking toll on deer

September 19 (www.mongabay.com) – Converting West African rainforests into cropland reduces rainforest in adjacent forest areas, reports research published in Geophysical Research Letters.

The study, based on a computer model used to simulate rainfall under different land-use conditions, found that cutting down tropical forests in West Africa reduces precipitation over neighboring forest areas by about 50 percent due to increased temperatures over cropland areas. Higher temperatures affect the formation of rain clouds.

"Rainfall was four to six times higher over warm areas (cropland) than when no deforestation has occurred, while rainfall over the remaining forest was half or less," stated a press release from the American Geophysical Union, which publishes Geophysical Research Letters. "The difference in rainfall is caused by the temperature change between cropland and forest, which produces winds that converge over the crop area and form clouds."

The researchers say their work, while applied to a small region, could have implications elsewhere.

"We already know from satellite observations that changes in land use can have a big impact on local weather patterns," said lead author Luis Garcia-Carreras with the University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment. "Here we have been able to show why this happens."

"Our findings suggest that it's not just the number of trees removed that threatens the stability of the world's rainforests. The pattern of deforestation is also important." […]

Converting rainforest to cropland in Africa reduces rainfall

By Tami Luhby, CNNMoney
23 September 2011

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) – Guess where most people in poverty live? Hint: It's not in the inner cities or rural America.

It's in the idyllic suburbs.

A record 15.4 million suburban residents lived below the poverty line last year, up 11.5% from the year before, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of Census data released Thursday. That's one-third of the nation's poor.

And their ranks are swelling fast, as jobs disappear and incomes decline amid the continued weak economy.

Since 2000, the number of suburban poor has skyrocketed by 53%, battered by the two recessions that wiped out many manufacturing jobs early on, and low-wage construction and retail positions more recently.

America's cities, meanwhile, had 12.7 million people in poverty last year, up about 5% from the year before and 23% since 2000. The remaining 18 million poor folks in the U.S. are roughly split between smaller metro areas and rural communities.

"We think of poverty as a really urban or ultra-rural phenomenon, but it's not," said Elizabeth Kneebone, senior research associate at Brookings. "It's increasingly a suburban issue."

Suburbia's population has boomed among all classes in recent decades as job growth shifted from central cities to their outskirts. Low-wage workers were needed to service this burgeoning number of residents and companies.

Suburbia became home to the greatest concentration of impoverished residents by 2005, Kneebone said. That stemmed in part from the collapse of the manufacturing industry based outside Midwestern cities. The loss of those jobs contributed to pushing many into poverty.

The Great Recession, however, accelerated the rise of the suburban poor, as it did the overall poverty rate.

The downturn also shifted where in suburbia poverty was intensifying. The collapse of the housing market caused the ranks of the poor to spike in Sun Belt communities, such as those surrounding Lakeland, Fla., and Riverside, Calif. Many low-income people had moved there during the boom to make money building and caring for homes or working in the retailers and restaurants that cropped up to service the new residents.

The face of the suburban poor is diverse.

To be sure, there were many suburbanites entrenched in poverty even before 2000. Nearly 10 million people fell below the poverty line at the start of the last decade.

They were then joined by new immigrants, who increasingly skipped the cities and moved directly to their outskirts in search of plentiful, but low-wage, construction or service jobs. The foreign born accounted for about 17% of the increase in the suburban poor between 2000 and 2009, according to a Brookings report.

Also, as wages eroded over the past decade, some people living on the edge found themselves pushed into poverty. For 2010, the poverty line stood at $22,314 a year for a family of four.

"If they are working minimum-wage jobs and see their wages decline or stagnate, they may now see themselves below the poverty line," Kneebone said. […]

Poverty pervades the suburbs via The Oil Drum

By Randy McIlwain, NBCDFW.com
22 September 2011

More than 1 million North Texas water customers will be under Stage 3 water restrictions beginning Nov. 1.

The North Texas Municipal Water District's board of trustees unanimously voted to implement a Stage 3 drought plan for its 1.6 million customers.

"This is an ongoing drought, and it is very severe," NTMWD spokeswoman Denise Hickey said.

Under Stage 3 restrictions, customers can only water their lawns once every two weeks. But they can still use drip irrigation and soaker hoses for home foundations and trees. People can only wash cars with a hose with a shutoff nozzle. Pool owners can only replenish water that has evaporated and cannot drain and refill their pools. Fountains must be turned off unless they use recycled water.

"We've hit triple-digit breaking weather," Hickey said. "We've had peak record demands this summer. The drought outlook continues to persist through the fall and into next spring."

A zebra mussel infestation since July 2009 at Lake Texoma has made the situation worse. The lake represents 28 percent of NTMWD's water supply, but pumping water from it runs the risk of contaminating other water sources. […]

Stage 3 Restrictions for Many on the Way