Desdemona Despair

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on Friday declared a state emergency due to drought and said he would consider mandatory water rationing in the face of nearly $3 billion in economic losses from below-normal rainfall this year.

As many as 95,000 agricultural jobs will be lost, communities will be devastated and some growers in the most economically productive farm state simply are not able to plant, state officials said, calling the current drought the most expensive ever.

Schwarzenegger, eager to build controversial dams as well as more widely backed water recycling programs, called on cities to cut back water use or face the first ever mandatory state restrictions as soon as the end of the month.

"California faces its third consecutive year of drought and we must prepare for the worst -- a fourth, fifth or even sixth year of drought," Schwarzenegger said in a statement, adding that recent storms were not enough to save the state.

…

Concern about California's tight water supply is on the upswing at the same time as officials in the state capital of Sacramento rally behind the idea of creating jobs with public works spending. Unemployment in the most populous state rose to double digits -- 10.1 percent -- in January.

Water planners and environmentalists are also broadly in agreement that climate change is creating a more erratic climate that could lengthen dry spells.

California declares drought emergency

From Calculated Risk:

New home sales in January 2009 (309 thousand SAAR) were 10.2% lower than last month, and were 48% lower than January 2008 (597 million SAAR). See link for graphs of sales and inventory.
There was some discussion that the seasonal adjustment might be distorting the sales number. The following graph of the January sales numbers (no adjustment) shows this decline in sales wasn't a seasonal issue.

This graph shows the Census Bureau reported sales for every January since 1963. The label is the sales for the month (in thousands).

Clearly January 2009 was the worst ever - and this wasn't adjusted for changes in population either, and the U.S. population has grown substantially since 1963. …

Summary Post: New Home Sales at Record Low

Sunderbans (West Bengal), Feb 25 (IANS) West Bengal Governor Gopal Krishna Gandhi Wednesday said the shrinking of the Ghoramara Island due to rising sea levels posed a threat not just to India, but to the world as well.

'The accelerated shrinking of the Ghoramara due to the advancing sea is a threat not just for the island or the state or India, but the world,' Gandhi said at the premiere of a documentary film here on the lives of climate change victims.

Ghoramara Island is located in the Sunderbans, the delta region of the Bay of Bengal, about 150 km south of Kolkata.

'Over the past 25 years, the island has been eaten away by the sea - from nine square kilometres, it has been whittled down by almost 50 percent to just about 4.7 sq km. If this continues, then very soon the island will disappear totally,' Gandhi said.

'The sea level is rising at an alarming rate due to global warming across the world. Besides, there is accelerated soil erosion. Looking at the condition of Ghoramara, I feel its high time all countries curbed carbon emissions,' he added.

…

Over the last 30 years, more than 7,000 people have been forced to move out of their homes on the island. Some shifted to the nearby Sagar Island, while others moved to Kolkata. …

Shrinking of West Bengal island is a serious threat: governor

Spain loses 90% of its glaciers thanks to global warming, threatening drought as rivers dry up

by Giles Tremlett

The Pyrenees mountains have lost almost 90% of their glacier ice over the past century, according to scientists who warn that global warning means they will disappear completely within a few decades.

While glaciers covered 3,300 hectares of land on the mountain range that divides Spain and France at the turn of the last century, only 390 hectares remain, according to Spain's environment ministry.

The most southerly glaciers in Europe are losing the battle against warming and look set to be among the first to disappear from the continent over the coming decades. Their loss will have a severe impact on summer water supplies in the foothills and southern plains south of the Pyrenees.

"This century could see (perhaps within a few decades) the total, or almost total, disappearance of the last reserves of ice in the Spanish Pyrenees and, as a result, a major change in the current nature of upper reaches of the mountains," the authors of the report on Spain's glaciers said.

Scientists have ruled out the idea that the progressive deterioration of glaciers around the globe are part of normal, long-term fluctuations in their size. Europe's glaciers are thought to have lost a quarter of their mass in the last 8 years.

Climate change lays waste to Spain's glaciers

MELBOURNE, Feb 26 (AFP) Feb 26, 2009 - Hundreds of Australian schools and childcare centres will be closed Friday because of a resurgent threat from wildfires that have already killed more than 200 people, officials said.

…

Temperatures of 39 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit) are expected across the state on Friday, raising fears that the heat and wind will stoke five major fires still burning or that lightning will start new ones.

Three schools burnt down on "Black Saturday" -- February 7 -- when temperatures of up to 46 C combined with high winds to raze more than 2,000 houses and kill a total of 210 people.

"This certainly is an extreme set of circumstances. We've got a tinder-dry environment and existing fires. The risk is very great on Friday," Pike said.

On Thursday, a heavy pall of smoke drifted across the eastern suburbs of the capital Melbourne as more than 3,000 firefighters worked on building defences against Friday's feared conflagration.

…

Schools close as Australia braces for resurgent wildfires

From Calculated Risk:

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309 thousand. This is the lowest sales rate the Census Bureau has ever recorded (starting in 1963).

The graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.

Sales of new one-family houses in January 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 10.2 percent (±15.4%)* below the revised December rate of 344,000 and is 48.2 percent (±6.8%) below the January 2008 estimate of 597,000.

…

By Tara Ravens

NORTHERN Australia is facing a fresh wave of potentially catastrophic mammal extinctions, experts warn.

Australia has the worst mammal extinction record in the world, with 22 mammals becoming extinct in the last 200 years.

Scientists now say the evidence suggests Australia is on the cusp of another wave.

Over 40 scientists and land managers met in Darwin last week for a two-day meeting to discuss their research into "critical" regional extinctions across the country's north.

"What we are seeing is a reduction both in the abundance of mammals but also for some species really catastrophic declines across their range," said Sarah Legge, from the Australian Wildlife Conservancy.

"They've shrunk down to 10 per cent of their former distribution (and) the frightening thing about it is the rate at which it's happening.

"Some species have already disappeared from more than 90 per cent of their past range across the north."

Dr Legge said about 1500 animals and plants were currently threatened with extinction in Australia, and "critical declines" had been noted on pastoral and indigenous lands, as well as national parks.

Among the species at risk are the Northern Quoll, Golden Bandicoot and Bilby.

"(They) are all declining, and doing so very rapidly," said Dr Legge. “This is undoubtedly one of the major biodiversity conservation issues affecting Australia.

"It would be heart-breaking and internationally embarrassing if we were to stand aside and witness another wave of extinctions."

…

Extinction looms as 1500 species in danger

Interview: Trouble ahead for top end mammals

Black Saturday Recount
By Ioan Thomas

The fire that hit Victoria on “Black Saturday” was one that had never been seen in Australia before. Victoria had gone through “Ash Wednesday” in 1983 and “Black Friday” in 1939. Australia’s capital city, Canberra, was badly damaged in 2004 by bushfires, with over 500 houses destroyed and four people killed. In 1994 Sydney was badly hit with 225 houses destroyed, 8000 square kilometres burnt out and four people killed.

However, those fires dwarfed into insignificance after the ferocious fireball hit Victoria, cutting a swath of destruction through the state. Over 200 people have been killed, 2000 houses destroyed and millions of animals and wildlife annihilated. This was a casualty rate never experienced before in Australia’s peacetime history. …

Mr Kevin Tolhurst, Melbourne University Senior Lecturer in Fire Ecology and Management, said the inferno was estimated to have been equal in power to 500 Hiroshima atomic bombs, generating 80,000 kilowatts per metre of flame front. Temperatures were said to be in excess of 1200 degrees. …

Austrailian fires: What about the animals?

There are fires.

And there are infernos.

When the blaze towers 100 to 200 feet and moves more than 60 miles per hour, it creates its own weather; people trying to speed away in cars can't escape. What chance do Koalas, kitties and livestock have?

A slim one.

But against all odds, in the charred trail of the worst bush fire in Australia's history, volunteers, veterinarians and survivors are binding up the wounds of some of the most innocent victims of all, the birds and animals.

For my friend Faith Weyer, this news is personal - she once called Australia home. Friends from ground zero keep her posted as best they can by e-mail.

"It just breaks my heart. Last night they showed a Greater Sulphur Crested Cockatoo baby burned & struggling in pain - Can't even see to type for the tears, it's just so sad." …

Faith's friend who teaches in Wangaratta writes:

"Hello Faith, Yes, we're still here. The fires have been catastrophic as you have learnt. Last Saturday the temperature rose to 115 degrees, with a strong wind. There are several towns virtually wiped out. If it had happened during a school day I hate to think what the losses of life would have been - bad as they are. The wildlife destruction has been huge. So far, the Healesville Sanctuary is a survivor, though they did move lots of their animals.

"As I listen, there is a program on radio about care for injured wild life - vets are giving their services free. The best you can do is to go into the web site of Wildlife Victoria. It is www.wildlifevictoria.org.au. You will find a section for international donations on their web page. …

Surviving wildlife face starvation - there is little or no habitat to return to. At least four wildlife shelters have been wiped out, meaning Wildlife Victoria - a not-for-profit, volunteer-based group has their work cut out for them. …

Also on scene, the International Fund for Animal Welfare - team leader Tania Duratovic reports from Whittlesea in her blog (at www.animalrescueblog.org/2009/02/bushfire-update.html#more.

"Driving through the affected area is surreal. The Australian bush has been replaced by a blackened wasteland... As one person recounted as they handed over a slightly burned ring-tailed possum, "We have lost our house, our neighbours and our pets but we found this little guy alive - please help him, I just want him to live."

Thirsty Wombat Found In Australian Burn Zone

Australian vets treat victims of deadly Victorian bushfires

…In another media release, Dr. Roslyn Nichol, AVA Victorian Division president reports that victim numbers are “enormous” and says pets, farm animals and wildlife are suffering. "The effect the fires can have on non-domestic animals that shun human contact often results in a slow and agonizing death," the release says. …

To donate to rescue and relief efforts, visit http://www.animalaid.com.au, https://www.redcross.org.au/Donations/onlineDonations.asp and http://rspcavic.org.
AVA compiled a list of organizations providing assistance at http://www.animalhealthaustralia.com.au/publications/update/aha-fire-and-flood-update/aha-fire-and-flood-update_home.cfm#story_4.

IFAW: Wildlife Fire Survivors Not Forgotten

WHITTLESEA, Australia, Feb. 17 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Since arriving on the scene last Tuesday, February 10, The International Fund for Animal Welfare's (IFAW - www.ifaw.org ) Emergency Relief team has worked with local community, vets, the authorities and wildlife groups to help close to 100 animals affected by the Victorian fires so far.

The number of animals being brought in for treatment has risen dramatically over the past few days as survivors emerge from the fire zones in search of food and water. Many have terrible burns, dehydration and wounds from fleeing the fires. Search and rescue operations are also being conducted as previously unsafe areas are being opened up. With so many animals being brought in for treatment the team has converted an old footy shed into an intensive care unit.

"Many local residents are bringing animals to us for treatment; there is a strong desire for these innocent creatures to survive. Seeing animals getting help seems to be offering some sense of hope and comfort to people who have lost a lot because of the fires," said Tania Duratovic, IFAW Emergency Responder.

"Anyone who has suffered burns knows how excruciating the pain is and animal burns hurt just as badly as human burns, pain relief for these animals is an absolute priority." …

By Michael Wines

QIAOBEI, China: In this tiny hamlet in northern China's wheat belt, Zheng Songxian scrapes out a living growing winter wheat on a vest-pocket plot, an eighth of a hectare carved out of a rocky hillside. One might think he would greet the chance this winter to till new land as cause for celebration.

He does not.

The new land he was offered normally lies under more than 6 meters, or 20 feet, of water, part of the Luhun Reservoir in northwestern Henan Province. But this winter, Luhun has lost most of its water to northern China's worst drought in at least 50 years. And what was once lake bottom has become just another field of winter wheat, stunted for want of rain.

Zheng, 50, stood in his field, which measures barely a third of an acre, on a recent winter day, a shrunken wheat plant freshly pulled from the earth in one hand. "I think I'm going to lose at least a third of my harvest this year," he said. "If we don't get rain before May, I won't be able to harvest anything."

Northern China is dry in the best of times. But this long rainless stretch has underscored the urgency of water problems in a region that grows three-fifths of China's crops and houses more than two-fifths of its people.

Water supplies have been drying up for decades, the result of pervasive overuse and waste. Underground aquifers have been so depleted that, in some farming regions, wells probe more than 800 meters deep before striking water.

The latest drought is crippling not only the country's best wheat farmland but also the wells that provide clean water to industry and to millions of people. …

China wheat harvest withers in drought

AP - Antarctic glaciers are melting faster across a much wider area than previously thought, scientists said Wednesday -- a development that could lead to an unprecedented rise in sea levels.

A report by thousands of scientists for the 2007-2008 International Polar Year concluded that the western part of the continent is warming up, not just the Antarctic Peninsula.

Previously most of the warming was thought to occur on the narrow stretch pointing toward South America, said Colin Summerhayes, executive director of the Britain-based Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and a member of International Polar Year's steering committee.

But satellite data and automated weather stations indicate otherwise.

"The warming we see in the peninsula also extends all the way down to what is called west Antarctica," Summerhayes told The Associated Press. "That's unusual and unexpected."

…

The biggest west Antarctic glacier, the Pine Island Glacier, is moving 40 percent faster than it was in the 1970s, discharging water and ice more rapidly into the ocean, Summerhayes said.

The Smith Glacier, also in west Antarctica, is moving 83 percent faster than it did in 1992, he said.

All the glaciers in the area together are losing a total of around 103 billion tons (114 billion U.S. tons) per year because the discharge is much greater than the new snowfall, he said.

"That's equivalent to the current mass loss from the whole of the Greenland ice sheet," Summerhayes said, adding that the glaciers' discharge was making a significant contribution to the rise in sea levels. "We didn't realize it was moving that fast." …

Study: Antarctic glaciers slipping swiftly seaward (AP)

From Calculated Risk:

Both the monthly indices (20 cities and 2 composites) and the quarterly national index were released this morning. I'll have more on the national index shortly.

The Composite 10 is off 19.2% over the last year.

The Composite 20 is off 18.5% over the last year.

These are the worst year-over-year price declines for the Composite indices since the housing bubble burst, although only slightly worse (on a year-over-year basis) than November. …

Case-Shiller: House Prices Decline Sharply in December

From Calculated Risk:

This graph shows the overall consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (graph from Northern Trust).

The Present Situation Index (not shown) is low, but not as low as in some earlier recessions (the Present Situation Index is at 21.2, it fell to 16.2 in 1982). What pulled down the overall index was that the Expectations Index was at an all time low. People are really concerned about the future. …

On Consumer Confidence

From Not Exactly Rocket Science:

In late 2007, seabirds off the coast of California began to die in record numbers. The waterproof nature of their feathers and been wrecked, and they were soaked to the skin. Without an insulating layer of air trapped within their plumage, the damp birds were suffering from extreme cold. These are exactly the type of problems that seabirds face when they blunder into oil spills, but in this case, not a drop of petroleum had entered the water. The problem was a biological one.

At the same time, Monterey Bay in California was plagued by a massive "red tide" - a bloom of microscopic algae called dinoflagellates. These blooms can include millions of cells in just a millilitre of water and some species churn out toxins that kill local wildlife. Sea lions, dolphins, sea otters, manatees, whales and even humans have all succumbed to these poisons, either directly or by eating contaminated food.

David Jessup from the Marine Wildlife Veterinary Care and Research Center found that these algae were the source of the birds' misfortune, but not because they were secreting toxins. Instead, they produced a foam that was loaded with surfactants - wetting agents. These are the chemicals used in detergents; they lower the surface tension of a liquid and allow it to spread more easily over a surface. This foam was the agent behind the seabirds' water-logged feathers.

The dead species included fulmars, loons and grebes. The latter two groups are particularly vulnerable to oil spills too, for they are totally aquatic and never come into land, even during winter. That makes their waterproofing especially important. Without it, even healthy individuals would freeze, especially during winter when they've just finished a long migration and are in poor condition. …

Red tides kill seabirds with 'soapy' foam

BBC - We have a special report from Argentina on a devastating drought that has killed more than a million cattle.

The plight of Argentina's farmers

by Rhett A. Butler, mongabay.com

Nearly one quarter of Papua New Guinea's rainforests were damaged or destroyed between 1972 and 2002, report researchers writing in the journal Biotopica.

The results, which were published in a report last June, show that Papua New Guinea is losing forests at a much faster rate than previously believed. Over the 30-year study period 15 percent of Papua New Guinea's tropical forests were cleared and 8.8 percent were degraded through logging.

"Our analysis does not support the theory that PNG’s forests have escaped the rapid changes recorded in other tropical regions," write the authors. "We conclude that rapid and substantial forest change has occurred in Papua New Guinea."

Deforestation and forest degradation in Papua New Guinea are primarily driven by logging, followed by clearing for subsistence agriculture. Since 2002 — a period not covered in the study — reports suggest that conversion of forest for industrial agriculture, especially oil palm plantations, has increased.

…

Dr. Phil Shearman, director of the University of Papua New Guinea's Remote Sensing Centre and lead author of the paper, says that without incentives to keep forest standing, Papua New Guinea will continue to lose its forests.

"Forests in Papua New Guinea are being logged repeatedly and wastefully with little regard for the environmental consequences and with at least the passive complicity of government authorities," said Shearman, noting that nearly half of Papua New Guinea's 8.7 million hectares of forest accessible to mechanized logging have been allocated to the commercial logging industry.

24% of Papua New Guinea's rainforest destroyed or degraded by logging in 30 years

I’ll be in the woods, recharging my batteries. Next post on Monday.

From Climate Progress:

From January 2008 to January 2009, the planet warmed a remarkable 0.37°C (see data here). This is 20 times (!) the annual rate of warming in recent decades and 20 times what most climate models have projected we should be experiencing.

The N.Y. Times and WSJ have made this stunning news of accelerated human-caused global warming a lead story, and even some previously skeptical “deniers” who had been pushing the myth of global cooling have publicly wondered how they could have been so wrong…. Okay, maybe that last sentence is wishful thinking.

But I’m sure you remember how the deniers and the media spun up the global cooling meme a year ago [see “Media enable denier spin 1: A (sort of) cold January doesn’t mean climate stopped warming“]. That meme began with a misleading post by retired TV weatherman Anthony Watts, which was based in large part on the coincidence of a (relatively) cool January 2008 following on the heels of the warmest January on record (according to NASA’s dataset).

So now we have a quite warm January 2009, which ties with 1998 as the 5th warmest January in NASA’s temperature record, following on the heels of that moderately cool [OK, technically 31st warmest on record] January 2008. And that gives us the huge year-over-year warming, which should be making headlines around the online and traditional media, if they were consistent, which, of course, they are not.

(more…)

Breaking news: Unprecedented global warming in past year

From Greenbang:

Interested in seeing some visual evidence of the global financial meltdown? We’ve found some fascinating links to images that demonstrate clearly the crash in demand for consumer goods.

For example, how many people aren’t buying cars these days? Check out The Truth About Cars’ “Worldwide Auto Inventory Glut in Pictures.” It’s pretty incredible.

The New York Times also recently published a photo feature titled, “Pileup at the Port.”

Then there’s Reuters photographer Bobby Yip’s picture of towering stacks of unused shipping containers — they loom over the area’s buildings — in Hong Kong.

And as prices for recyclable materials have crashed, so too has the profitability of China’s recycling mills, as evidenced by photo number four at the BBC’s “Day in Pictures” feature.

Signs of the times: images of global glut

by Deborah Smith, Science Editor

MOST southern hemisphere plants - except for weeds - will not be able to adapt to rapid climate change, a study of more than 11,000 species suggests.

Researchers, including the Sydney botanist Peter Weston, traced the history of plants that live in a range of different habitats including bogs, alpine regions, rainforests and arid environments.

They found the vast majority were still stuck in their old ways. Despite tens of millions of years of evolution, less than 4 per cent of the species had managed to shift to new habitats.

"We were struck by the conservatism of plants - how rarely they were able to adapt and flourish outside of their ancestral environments," said Dr Weston, of the Botanic Gardens Trust.

This made it likely that many species would have trouble surviving if their current habitats shrank as a result of climate change, he said.

Those least likely to go extinct were plants with short life cycles and that spread easily - both characteristics of weeds.

"Weeds will be the beneficiaries of climate change," Dr Weston said.

Stuck in the mud: plants on death row in changing world

From Calculated Risk:

The American Institute of Architects reports: Another Historic Low for Architecture Billings Index

Note that historically there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending". The ABI fell off a cliff in early 2008 and we are just starting to see that decline show up in non-residential construction spending.
The ABI fell off a 2nd cliff in late 2008, and that will show up later in 2009.

Architecture Billings Index Hits Another Record Low

LIMA (AFP) – Andean glaciers and the region's permanently snow-covered peaks could disappear in 20 years if no measures are taken to tackle climate change, the World Bank warned Tuesday.

A World Bank-published report said rising temperatures due to global warming could also have a dramatic impact on water management in the Andean region, with serious knock-on effects for agriculture and energy generation.

According to the report, in the last 35 years Peru's glaciers have shrunk by 22 percent, leading to a 12 percent loss in the amount of fresh water reaching the coast -- home to most of the country's citizens.

"It is highly probable that the earth's surface will undergo an unprecedented temperature increase of nearly two degrees centigrade (four Fahrenheit) by 2050 and up to four degrees (eight Fahrenheit) by the end of the century," said Pablo Fajnzylber, a senior World Bank economist.

The equivalent of seven billion cubic meters of water could be lost.

In a bid to help slow the rate of warming, the World Bank has established a six-billion-dollar fund to help develop low-carbon technologies.

Andean glaciers 'could disappear': World Bank

Scientists involved in the most comprehensive study of life in the oceans ever conducted have documented changes in species distribution in the polar regions as warmer oceans spur migration

by Jessica Aldred

Global warming is changing the distribution, abundance and diversity of marine life in the polar seas with "profound" implications for creatures further up the food chain, according to scientists involved in the most comprehensive study of life in the oceans ever conducted.

Researchers from the Arctic Ocean Diversity (Arcod) project have documented rising numbers of warm-water crustaceans in the seas around Norway's Svalbard Islands. Arcod is part of the Census of Marine Life, a huge 10-year project involving researchers in more than 80 nations that aims to chart the diversity, distribution and abundance of life in the oceans.

They say an increasing number of these species are extending their range towards the poles as previously cold waters between Norway and the North Pole become warmer and more hospitable.

…

"We are finding two smaller species of plankton. This difference in size is big enough to cause a problem for the breeding populations of birds and whales as they will be forced to eat smaller species that has less energy content."

…

"In oceanographical terms these [Arctic] changes are huge," said Gradinger. "A change in temperature of just a few degrees will see the loss of sea ice cover and with it the sea ice algae, small animals and crustaceans which depend on it. By 2050 the arctic oceans may be ice free, we will lose these animals and that will have implications further up the food chain."

"From an Arctic perspective it's not only about an increase in temperature, it's a complete change in the ecosystem - salinity, ice melt, flow, currents - all of these together will have an impact." …

Global warming 'changing balance' of marine life in polar seas

By Jeff Benjamin

Iceland’s economic meltdown, fueled by its exposure to foreign debt, could bring the country to the brink of failure, according to research from Hennessee Group LLC.

“Iceland had one of the highest standards of living in the world just a few months ago,” said Charles Gradante, co-founder of the New York-based hedge fund advisory firm.

“Now after experiencing the fastest economic collapse in history, Iceland is suffering from soaring unemployment, as well as double-digit interest rates and inflation,” Mr. Gradante said.

…

A study of the external debt in relation to GDP in several countries suggests the risk is not limited to Iceland, according to Hennessee’s research.

Like Iceland, Ireland’s external debt, at $1.8 trillion, equals 900% of the country’s $200 billion GDP. The United Kingdom’s external debt of $10.5 trillion equals 456% of its $2.3 trillion GDP. Switzerland’s external debt of $1.3 trillion equals 433% of its $300 billion GDP.

Even though it might not feel like it right now, the United States is in better shape with $12.3 trillion worth of external debt and a $14.6 trillion GDP for an 84% debt-to-GDP ratio. …

Iceland at the brink of failure

Archival photographs spanning more than five decades reveal a drastic decline of so-called "trophy fish" caught around coral reefs surrounding Key West, Florida.

Loren McClenachan, a graduate student at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, estimates that large predatory fish have declined in weight by 88 percent in modern photos compared to black-and-white shots from the 1950s. The average length of sharks declined by more than 50 percent in 50 years, the photographs revealed.

The study mirrors others that reveal stark changes to animal sizes caused by hunting or fishing, in which the largest of a species are often sought as trophy specimens.

McClenachan's findings will be published in the journal Conservation Biology. In a companion paper being published in the Endangered Species Research journal, McClenachan used similar methods to document the decline of the globally endangered goliath grouper fish.

"These results provide evidence of major changes over the last half century and a window into an earlier, less disturbed fish community," McClenachan writes.

Old Photos Document Dramatic Decline in Trophy Fish Size

From Tamino:

One of the most dramatic signs of the recent drought is the level of lakes in the region. The level for lake Alexandrina is at a remarkable all-time low, presently half a meter below sea level.

Drought in Australia

Madrid - Antarctica's Wilkins Ice Shelf is rapidly disintegrating, Spanish scientists reported on Tuesday, with potentially ominous implications for climate change.

An ice sheet of 14,000 square kilometres has broken off from the Wilkins Shelf, and has itself broken into several large icebergs, according to a statement from Spain's National Research Council (CSIC).

CSIC scientists aboard the Hesperides maritime research vessel spotted the disintegration, about 1,600 kilometres south of the southern tip of South America.

If their observation is confirmed, only a small tip of the huge 16,000 square kilometre ice shelf would still be attached to Antarctica.

Pedro Luis de la Puente, the captain of the Hesperides, said 'We have seen huge icebergs, which have split off from the ice platform. Some of these icebergs are more than 200 metres high.'

The scientists pointed out that such a disintegration of an ice sheet would lead to rising sea levels.

Researchers spot huge split in Antartic ice shelf

Sydney (AFP) Feb 16, 2009 - Australia Monday began counting the economic cost of wild weather this month which left the northeast under water and the southeast in flames.

Floods unleashed by cyclonic rains saw much of Queensland state declared a disaster area, a week before a record heatwave sparked the worst wildfires in history in Victoria state on February 7.

On Monday, authorities estimated the cost of Queensland's flood damage at 210 million Australian dollars (137 million US dollars), and still climbing, the state government said.

Conservative early estimates have put the cost of the wildfires, which killed at least 180 people and destroyed about 1,800 homes, at more than 500 million Australian dollars, but it is expected to be much higher.

The floods affected more than a million square kilometres (386,100 square miles) and 3,000 homes, forcing hundreds of people to evacuate, while severed roads and swollen rivers stranded others in their houses.

…

The fires scorched 400,000 hectares (988,000 acres) and left thousands homeless.

Australia counts cost of fires, floods

More than half of cropland expansion between 1980 and 2000 occurred at the expense of natural forests, while another 30 percent of occurred in disturbed forests, reported a Stanford University researcher presenting Saturday at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Chicago.

Holly Gibbs, formerly of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, reached her conclusion after analyzing more than 600 satellite images from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and other organizations.

"What we found was that indeed forests were the primary source for new croplands as they expanded across the tropics during the 1980s and 1990s," Gibbs explained. "Cropland expansion, whether it's for fuel, feed or food, has undoubtedly led to more deforestation, and evidence is mounting that this trend will continue."

"This is a major concern for the global environment," she continued. "As we look toward biofuels to help reduce climate change we must consider the rainforests and savannas that may lie in the pathway of expanding biofuel cropland." …

80% of agricultural expansion since 1980 came at expense of forests

CORUMBA, Brazil (Reuters) - Jaguars still roam the world's largest wetland and endangered Hyacinth Macaws nest in its trees but advancing farms and industries are destroying Brazil's Pantanal region at an alarming rate.

The degradation of the landlocked river delta on the upper Paraguay river which straddles Brazil's borders with Bolivia and Paraguay is a reminder of how economic progress can cause large-scale environmental damage.

"It's a type of Noah's Ark but it risks running aground," biologist and tourist guide Elder Brandao de Oliveira says of the Pantanal.

Brazil's exports of beef, iron and to a lesser extent soy -- the main products from the Pantanal -- have rocketed in recent years, driven largely by global demand.

…

Brazil's pig iron exports have grown sixfold to $3.14 billion since 2003. Around 1.5 million hectares (3.7 million acres) of native forest are lost annually in Mato Grosso do Sul state, home to much of the Pantanal, an FGV study showed.

…

Erosion resulting from deforestation has created large sandbanks on tributaries to the Paraguay river, such as the Taquari and Rio Negro, making them partially unnavigable.

"Rivers will change course, lakes appear or disappear -- the size and shape of the Pantanal will change," said Sandro Menezes, manager of Conservation International's Pantanal project. "It's very probable that local flora and fauna will become extinct."

Already, there are signs that runoff water from nearby farms is altering the ecosystem's delicate balance.

"We see trees flower and birds breed earlier -- we believe it's because of fertilizers in the water," said de Oliveira.

World's largest wetland threatened in Brazil

In the Southern Indian Ocean, climate change is leading to stronger winds, which mix waters, bringing carbon dioxide up from the ocean depths to the surface. As a result, the Southern Ocean can no longer absorb as much atmospheric CO2 as before. Its role as a 'carbon sink' has been weakened, and it may now be ten times less efficient than previously estimated. The same trend can be observed at high latitudes in the North Atlantic.

The increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, which is the cause of climate warming, is the result of human activity (use of fossil fuels and deforestation). However, warming is mitigated by the oceans and by terrestrial ecosystems, which are able to absorb a large part of CO2 emissions. The oceans are the planet's main carbon sink, but in the last ten years they have become increasingly unable to play this role, in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

Ocean Less Effective At Absorbing Carbon Dioxide Emitted By Human Activity

The demise of Greenland's indigenous fishing villages should be a warning to us all, says a Kiwi who has seen the devastating impact of global warming.

by STACEY WOOD - The Dominion Post

Otago University student Susan Smirk spent five days in Greenland filming footage for a documentary about the impact of climate change, after her high school film-making team won the Freemasons Big Science Adventures film competition, run by the Royal Society of New Zealand.

She and her team visited the abandoned village of Ikateq and saw the toll that government policy and global warming have taken on Greenland's indigenous population.

Coastal fishing villages such as Ikateq used to be home to families who relied on regular catches of Arctic char, a fish closely related to salmon. But warmer ocean temperatures in recent years have forced the char to migrate north to cooler waters, ending a way of life.

Traditional villages are now ghost towns, with dogsleds and fish-drying racks lying unused outside abandoned houses.

With no way to support themselves, villagers have been forced to move to urban centres the largest city and capital, Nuuk, has a population of about 15,000. Ms Smirk says most of the displaced have no other way to earn a living and rely on social welfare.

Greenland's loss seen as warning

All signs point to the climate becoming more extreme

by Marian Wilkinson and Ben Cubby

When hundreds of small, grey-headed flying foxes began falling from the sky at Yarra Bend in suburban Melbourne, for some it heralded the awful events that would later unfold. It was Wednesday, January 28, one day into the ferocious heatwave that would wax and wane before returning with terrible intensity last weekend.

That first day, calls began pouring into Wildlife Victoria. As the bats were dying en masse in the city, ringtail possums were falling out of trees in the bush and distressed kangaroos, too weak to jump, were baulking at fences.

"It was just unbelievable," said Fiona Corke, a Wildlife Victoria rescuer. "The animals were behaving very strangely. We were telling people to leave dishes of water by the side of the roads."

By January 30, Melbourne's temperature topped 45.1 degrees. A climate scientist, Dr David Karoly, noticed the city's plane trees had begun to shed their leaves under the stress of the heat.

In Tasmania, half the state recorded its hottest day on record. Launceston Airport hit 39.9 degrees, well over two degrees higher than its last record temperature.

In Adelaide, in the early hours of January 29, the city experienced its hottest night on record, 33.9 degrees.

Just north of the city, the air base at RAAF Edinburgh recorded an extraordinary 41.7 degrees at 3am. "Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia," the Bureau of Meteorology said.

People began turning up in the public hospitals, felled by the heat. As the days wore on and on, heat-related hospital admissions would ultimately reach more than 700.

To climate scientists and professional forecasters, it was clear that Australia was experiencing "an extreme weather event". But few among the public realised at the time, these first awful days would be just phase one of the heatwave.

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The Victorian Premier, John Brumby, bluntly acknowledged this week that climate change cannot be ignored in the future debate over the bushfires.

"There is clear evidence now that the climate is becoming more extreme," Brumby told The 7.30 Report. And, announcing a royal commission on Australia's worst natural disaster, he insisted it would look at all aspects of the events. "I want everything on the table."

On the day the bushfires started claiming lives, Melbourne reached a record 46.4 degrees for the first time in 154 years of record-keeping, overshooting the high set on Black Friday, January 13, 1939 by 0.8 degrees and far exceeding the temperature on Ash Wednesday in 1983.

The end of certainty

By ROBERT F. WORTH

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Sofia, a 34-year-old Frenchwoman, moved here a year ago to take a job in advertising, so confident about Dubai’s fast-growing economy that she bought an apartment for almost $300,000 with a 15-year mortgage.

Now, like many of the foreign workers who make up 90 percent of the population here, she has been laid off and faces the prospect of being forced to leave this Persian Gulf city — or worse.

“I’m really scared of what could happen, because I bought property here,” said Sofia, who asked that her last name be withheld because she is still hunting for a new job. “If I can’t pay it off, I was told I could end up in debtors’ prison.”

With Dubai’s economy in free fall, newspapers have reported that more than 3,000 cars sit abandoned in the parking lot at the Dubai Airport, left by fleeing, debt-ridden foreigners (who could in fact be imprisoned if they failed to pay their bills). Some are said to have maxed-out credit cards inside and notes of apology taped to the windshield.

Laid-Off Foreigners Flee as Dubai Spirals Down

By James Campbell, Sunday Herald Sun

MELBOURNE is shrouded in a smoke haze as the Victoria fires continue to burn across the state.

Visibility at Melbourne airport is down to 2km with the Bureau of Meteorology warning the haze could linger until the end of next week.

The Environment Protection Authority has issued a smoke warning, advising people with respiratory or heart conditions to take precautions, the Sunday Herald Sun reports.

EPA director of environmental services Bruce Dawson said that with predicted northeasterly winds, Melbourne would continue to be affected by smoke.

“We expect these conditions will continue,'' Mr Dawson said.

“We would advise residents to take sensible precautions.

“As always, those closest to the seat of the fires will continue to have reduced visibility and high smoke levels as firefighters work to bring the fires under control.''

Smoke covers state in a haze as Victoria fires continue to burn

The Gaia thinker's latest book warns that climate disaster is imminent

by Camilla Cavendish 

You may feel, as job losses soar and parts of the world descend into turmoil, that you're apocalypsed-out for February. If so, you may not immediately leap at James Lovelock's forthcoming book, The Vanishing Face of Gaia. His warning that climate change is spinning us into a hot world, where billions will starve and whole ecosystems will collapse, is a horror few want to contemplate, leavened only by the faint consolation that those of us lucky enough to live in the British Isles, Siberia, Chile, Canada or New Zealand may survive. But his prophecies are plausible and they will also make you think, which are two good reasons to grit your teeth and read him.

It is human nature to prefer writers who confirm the accepted wisdom to those who speak inconvenient truths. Look at the journalists who warned two years ago that Iceland's banks were over-leveraged. Remember the late fund manager Tony Dye, who was ridiculed for predicting the dotcom bust and was fired by his employer, Phillips & Drew, only weeks before the stock market turned. The media has been similarly dismissive of scientists who fear that it is too late to avert serious climate change. We prefer those who warn that there are dangers, but that they are far off and containable. Four years ago, when Lovelock forecast widespread devastation, he was generally dismissed as a lovable “maverick”, a word that always makes me sit up because it is a favourite weapon of the Establishment to fend off difficult ideas.

Suddenly, in 2009, Lovelock's fears strike a chord. The Vanishing Face of Gaia has been hailed as “the most important book for decades” by Andrew Marr, a man not especially sympathetic to green issues or conspiracies. The book is powerful, not only because of the scary scale and speed of change that Lovelock foresees, making the first chapters as pacey as a Hollywood romp, but also because he is a serious, hands-on scientist. While working at Nasa in the 1960s he invented the electron capture detector, which enabled him to point the world to the dangers of the ozone hole and pesticides such as DDT. He has also built spy gadgets for MI6. Nor is he a conventional green. He loathes wind farms, is passionately pro-nuclear and is scathing about “saving the planet”. The planet will look after itself, he says. It's humans we need to save, and soon.

What Lovelock calls his “final warning” (he is 90) has new resonance because of the increasingly alarming data that is coming from the observation of everything from species numbers and deforestation to sea levels and Arctic ice. 

It's too late for Planet Earth, says James Lovelock

Penguins are on the verge of a precipitous decline, one conservation group warns.

A combination of changing weather patterns, overfishing, pollution, and other factors have conspired against the aquatic, flightless birds, according to a long-running study conducted by the Bronx Zoo-based Wildlife Conservation Society.

The study's findings were presented today by University of Washington professor and WCS scientific fellow Dr. P. Dee Boersma at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in Chicago.

Boersma, director of the Wildlife Conservation Society's Penguin Project, has recently published two papers documenting some of the serious challenges faced by Magellanic penguins at a colony she has studied for more than 25 years at Punta Tombo, a wildlife reserve some 1,000 miles south of Buenos Aires, Argentina. The papers appeared in the February issues of the journals Marine Ecology Progress Series, and Ecological Monographs.

Boersma's data reveal that penguins at Punta Tombo are traveling farther to find food than they did just a decade ago due to changing ocean conditions and overfishing-particularly of anchovies, a favorite penguin food.

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"Penguins are having trouble with food on their wintering grounds and if that happens they're not going to come back to their breeding grounds," she said. "If we continue to fish down the food chain and take smaller and smaller fish like anchovies, there won't be anything left for penguins and other wildlife that depend on these small fish for food."

Of the world's 17 species of penguins 12 are rapidly declining Boersma added.

Penguins in Peril, Research Shows

By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor

Sunday, 2 September 2007

Fires of unprecedented ferocity are sweeping around the world, fuelled by global warming and misguided environmentalism.

Dubbed "megafires", they rage over thousands of miles at 1,000C and create their own weather, even triggering tornadoes. Rapidly increasing in number, they are often unquenchable by any human efforts, burning unchecked until they reach coasts or are put out by heavy rainfall.

The devastating fires that have ravaged Greece killed at least 63 people and charred 482,000 acres of land. This summer, as record heatwaves hit much of southern Europe, more than 1.9 million acres have gone up in smoke .

Matters are even worse in the United States, where 20 years ago, fires burning over 5,000 acres were relatively rare. In the past 10 years, however, there have more than 200 conflagrations 10 times the size. Last year, 9.6 million acres of the country were devastated, beating an all-time record set 2005. This is the sixth time in the past decade that a record year has immediately been surpassed in the following 12 months.

A year ago the Australian state of Victoria suffered 200 fires in a single day. There have also been megafires in France, Spain, Portugal, Canada, Russia, Mongolia, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil.

Experts agree that they are caused partly by droughts and higher temperatures brought by global warming, but they also point to conservation practices which have discouraged controlled burning of forests and caused a huge build-up of up to 30 of 40 tons of tinder dry kindling on each acre of ground. Once lit – by lightning, arson or human error – they produce 20ft flames and generate temperatures of up to 1,200C. At this intensity they generate their own winds. One such fire caused tornados near Canberra in 2003.

Professor Stephen J Pyne, an expert at Arizona State University called the fires "climatic tsunamis", and Kevin O'Loughlin, the head of Melbourne's Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre added: "They cannot be controlled by any suppression resources that we have available anywhere in the world."

More 'megafires' to come, say scientists

by Asa Wahlquist

VICTORIA'S bushfires have released a massive amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - almost equal to Australia's industrial emission for an entire year.

Mark Adams, from the University of Sydney, said the emissions from bushfires were far beyond what could be contained through carbon capture and needed to be addressed in the next international agreement.

"Once you are starting to burn millions of hectares of eucalypt forest, then you are putting into the atmosphere very large amounts of carbon," Professor Adams said.

In work for the Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre, he estimated the 2003 and 2006-07 bushfires could have put 20-30 million tonnes of carbon (70-105 million tonnes of carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere.

"That is far, far more than we're ever going to be able to sequester from planting trees or promoting carbon capture," he said.

The 2003 and 2006-07 bushfires were burning land carrying 50 to 80 tonnes of carbon per hectare. "This time we are burning forests that are even more carbon-dense than last time, well over 100 tonnes above-ground carbon per hectare," he said.

Bushfires release huge carbon load

By KYLE HOPKINS - McClatchy Newspapers

An already-fragile population of killer whales that hunts Prince William Sound never recovered from the Exxon Valdez oil spill and is doomed to die off, biologists said last week. …

One of the most striking surprises to emerge from the annual Alaska Forum on the Environment was the tale of the so-called "AT1" population of killer whales.

Twenty years ago, the population numbered 22 whales. Today, only seven remain. …

Then the tanker Exxon Valdez ran aground on Bligh Reef in Prince William Sound, and the estimated 11 million gallons it spilled killed thousands of birds and other wildlife.

The whales were known to be in the area. A Los Angeles Times photo shows four AT1 whales swimming near the leaking tanker.

Over the next year, more than a third of the whales died, and the population continued to fall.

The group is more than a pod. It's the remains of a larger genetic population bound by family ties and social bonds, with its own distinct "language" of calls, said Eva Saulitis, a marine biologist who works with Matkin at the nonprofit North Gulf Oceanic Society.

The depleted population won't mate with other groups, Saulitis said. The remaining whales may be too closely related to have calves, and the two remaining females are getting to old to reproduce.

She estimates this group of whales will be extinct within 25 years.